Fractional Age-Structured Modeling of Measles: Application of Inverse Methods

Yan Qiao, Chong Li, Azmat Ullah Khan Niazi and Xin Pang

Complexity, 2025, vol. 2025, 1-15

Abstract: This study introduces a novel fractional age-structured Susceptibles-Exposed-Infective-Hospitalized-Recovered-Adults (SEIHRA) model, designed to analyze measles transmission dynamics, particularly in younger populations. By incorporating age structure and an innovative inverse method, the model bridges mathematical rigor with empirical data. We examine equilibrium points, stability, and the basic reproduction number R0, while using the inverse method to estimate the time-dependent transmission rate βt from real-world outbreak data. Validated with Chinese measles data (1974–2022), the model captures temporal and age-specific trends, achieving an optimal fractional order of 0.94. Sensitivity analysis via the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) technique highlights key parameters influencing R0. Combining age structure and inverse methods, this work reveals age-specific transmission patterns and evaluates targeted vaccination strategies, offering critical insights for public health policies and global measles eradication efforts.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2025/7367545.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2025/7367545.xml (application/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:7367545

DOI: 10.1155/cplx/7367545

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Complexity from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().