Multiobjective Genetic Programming Can Improve the Explanatory Capabilities of Mechanism-Based Models of Social Systems

Tuong M. Vu, Charlotte Buckley, Hao Bai, Alexandra Nielsen, Charlotte Probst, Alan Brennan, Paul Shuper, Mark Strong and Robin C. Purshouse

Complexity, 2020, vol. 2020, 1-20

Abstract:

The generative approach to social science, in which agent-based simulations (or other complex systems models) are executed to reproduce a known social phenomenon, is an important tool for realist explanation. However, a generative model, when suitably calibrated and validated using empirical data, represents just one viable candidate set of entities and mechanisms. The model only partially addresses the needs of an abductive reasoning process—specifically it does not provide insight into other viable sets of entities or mechanisms nor suggests which of these are fundamentally constitutive for the phenomenon to exist. In this paper, we propose a new model discovery framework that more fully captures the needs of realist explanation. The framework exploits the implicit ontology of an existing human-built generative model to propose and test a plurality of new candidate model structures. Genetic programming is used to automate this search process. A multiobjective approach is used, which enables multiple perspectives on the value of any particular generative model—such as goodness of fit, parsimony, and interpretability—to be represented simultaneously. We demonstrate this new framework using a complex systems modeling case study of change and stasis in societal alcohol use patterns in the US over the period 1980–2010. The framework is successful in identifying three competing explanations of these alcohol use patterns, using novel integrations of social role theory not previously considered by the human modeler. Practitioners in complex systems modeling should use model discovery to improve the explanatory utility of the generative approach to realist social science.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2020/8923197.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2020/8923197.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:8923197

DOI: 10.1155/2020/8923197

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Complexity from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem (mohamed.abdelhakeem@hindawi.com).