2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses

Zhiming Li, Zhidong Teng and Changxing Ma

Complexity, 2020, vol. 2020, 1-12

Abstract:

Currently, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Hubei province, China. In this paper, stochastic and deterministic models are proposed to investigate the transmission mechanism of 2019-nCoV from 15 January to 5 February 2020 in Hubei province. For the deterministic model, basic reproduction number is defined and endemic equilibrium is given. Under , quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic process is approximated by Gaussian diffusion. Residual, sensitivity, dynamical, and diffusion analyses of the models are conducted. Further, control variables are introduced to the deterministic model and optimal strategies are provided. Based on empirical results, we suggest that the first and most important thing is to control input, screening, treatment, and isolation.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2020/9012178.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2020/9012178.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:9012178

DOI: 10.1155/2020/9012178

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Complexity from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem (mohamed.abdelhakeem@hindawi.com).