An Approach for Demand Forecasting in Steel Industries Using Ensemble Learning

S. M. Taslim Uddin Raju, Amlan Sarker, Apurba Das, Md. Milon Islam, Mabrook S. Al-Rakhami, Atif M. Al-Amri, Tasniah Mohiuddin, Fahad R. Albogamy and Shahzad Sarfraz

Complexity, 2022, vol. 2022, 1-19

Abstract: This paper aims to introduce a robust framework for forecasting demand, including data preprocessing, data transformation and standardization, feature selection, cross-validation, and regression ensemble framework. Bagging (random forest regression (RFR)), boosting (gradient boosting regression (GBR) and extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBR)), and stacking (STACK) are employed as ensemble models. Different machine learning (ML) approaches, including support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machine (ELM), and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), are adopted as reference models. In order to maximize the determination coefficient (R2) value and reduce the root mean square error (RMSE), hyperparameters are set using the grid search method. Using a steel industry dataset, all tests are carried out under identical experimental conditions. In this context, STACK1 (ELM + GBR + XGBR-SVR) and STACK2 (ELM + GBR + XGBR-LASSO) models provided better performance than other models. The highest accuracies of R2 of 0.97 and 0.97 are obtained using STACK1 and STACK2, respectively. Moreover, the rank according to performances is STACK1, STACK2, XGBR, GBR, RFR, MLP, ELM, and SVR. As it improves the performance of models and reduces the risk of decision-making, the ensemble method can be used to forecast the demand in a steel industry one month ahead.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/9928836.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/9928836.xml (application/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:9928836

DOI: 10.1155/2022/9928836

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Complexity from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().