Polarised upgrading: the changing occupational structure of large cities in Germany and the UK, 1991–2021

Daniel Oesch, Katy Morris and Gina-Julia Westenberger
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Daniel Oesch: LIVES Centre, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Katy Morris: SOFI, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden ; LIVES Centre, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Gina-Julia Westenberger: LIVES Centre, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

Journal for Labour Market Research, 2025, vol. 59, issue 1, Article 32

Abstract: "An influential thesis predicted in the 1990s that large cities would become polarised as both high-wage professional and low-wage service jobs expanded at the expense of middle-wage workers. We revisit this thesis by analysing change in the occupational class structure of the ten largest cities in Germany and the UK, 1991–2021. Using UK census and German social security data (SIAB), we find for all cities strong job growth at the top – among professionals and managers –, moderate growth at the bottom – among service and sales workers – and a sharp decline in the middle – among office clerks and production workers. The result is occupational class upgrading with a polarised twist. Polarised upgrading was particularly strong in London, but also evident in Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester or Newcastle. German cities experienced similar levels of occupational upgrading, but less polarisation. Notably in Berlin, Munich and Stuttgart, job growth was heavily concentrated among professionals and managers. While second-tier cities such as Dortmund, Essen or Leipzig also created many professional jobs, they experienced almost as much growth in low-end jobs. We find no evidence that job polarisation is specific to the largest cities or that strong job growth among professionals is limited to a few winner-take-all cities such as London and Berlin." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Großbritannien; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien; Berufsgruppe; Berufsstrukturwandel; Beschäftigungsentwicklung; Büroberufe; Dienstleistungsberufe; Fachkräfte; Führungskräfte; Großstadt; Hochqualifizierte; Industrieberufe; internationaler Vergleich; Akademikerberufe; mittlere Qualifikation; Niedrigqualifizierte; Angestelltenberufe; Arbeiterberufe; regionaler Vergleich; qualifikationsspezifische Faktoren; Arbeitsmarktsegmentation; 1991-2021 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J21 J40 P25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-20
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DOI: 10.1186/s12651-025-00420-2

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