A Transmission Dynamics Model of COVID-19 With Consideration of the Vulnerability of a Population

Patricia Adjeley Laryea, F. T. Oduro, Christopher Saaha Bornaa and Samuel Okyere

Journal of Mathematics Research, 2024, vol. 15, issue 5, 47

Abstract: A well documented characteristic of COVID-19 is that whereas certain infected individuals recover without ever showing symptoms, others regarded as vulnerable, usually age with comorbidities tend to succumb to more or less severe symptoms. To address pertinent issues, we formulate an $SEI_{A}I_{S}RS$ Transmission Dynamics model of COVID-19 where $I_{A}$ and $I_{S}$ respectively represent asymptomatic and symptomatic classes thus allowing the inclusion of parameters which are vulnerability sensitive. We define a vulnerability factor, $\phi$ and show that the model is globally asymptotically stable at the disease-free equilibrium when $\mathcal{R}_{0}<1$ and $\phi$ is appropriately bounded above. We also show that the model is globally asymptotically stable at the endemic equilibrium when $\mathcal{R}_{0}>1$ and $\phi$ is appropriately bounded below. Finally, we employ numerical analysis using Ghana data, to further illustrate the effect of vulnerability related parameter values on the trajectories of key variables of the model. We thereby demonstrated that if a dominantly young population is of sufficiently low vulnerability then $\mathcal{R}_{0}<1$, and the Transmission Dynamics exhibits global asymptotic stability at the disease-free equilibrium.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jmr/article/download/0/0/49371/53300 (application/pdf)
https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jmr/article/view/0/49371 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ibn:jmrjnl:v:15:y:2024:i:5:p:47

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Mathematics Research from Canadian Center of Science and Education Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Canadian Center of Science and Education ().