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Sovereign Credit Ratings and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Analysis on Dynamic Linkages in Malaysia Using Bound Test Approach

Abd Halim Ahmad, Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud and Marzuki Ainulashikin

The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, 2008, vol. VII, issue 6, 29-39

Abstract: : The paper investigates the long- and short-run relationship between sovereign credit ratings and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia by employing quarterly data from 1991 to 2004. A robust and recent time series technique known as the Unrestricted Error Correction Model Bound Test was used which is applicable irrespective of whether the regressors are I(0) or I(1). The results show that in the long run, debt to GDP, debt service to reserve and US Treasury Bill rate (3 months) appear to have a significant impact on Malaysia s sovereign credit ratings. The findings of the study show that Malaysia s long-term ability to pay its debt contains information for the prediction of the credit ratings.

Date: 2008
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