THE 2009 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: DIVERSIFIED TREATMENT UNDER AMBIGUITY

Charles Manski

International Economic Review, 2009, vol. 50, issue 4, 1013-1041

Abstract: This article develops a broad theme about treatment under ambiguity through study of a particular decision criterion. The broad theme is that a planner may want to cope with ambiguity by diversification, assigning observationally identical persons to different treatments. Study of the minimax-regret (MR) criterion substantiates the theme. The article significantly extends my earlier analysis of one-period planning with an individualistic treatment and a linear welfare function. I show that MR treatment allocations are fractional in a large class of planning problems with nonlinear welfare functions, interacting treatments, learning, and noncooperative aspects. Copyright © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Date: 2009
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