Details about Charles Manski

Homepage:	http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/
Phone:	1-847-491-8223
Postal address:	Department of Economics, Northwestern University, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208 U.S.A.
Workplace:	Department of Economics, Northwestern University, (more information at EDIRC) Institute for Policy Research (IPR), Northwestern University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Charles Manski.

Last updated 2023-12-05. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pma111

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Working Papers

2025

1. Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Racial/Ethnic Classification in Medical Risk Assessment
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
2. What is the general Welfare? Welfare Economic Perspectives
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2024

3. Accounting for Nonresponse in Election Polls: Total Margin of Error
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
4. Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
5. Identification and Statistical Decision Theory
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)

2023

6. Credible Social Planning under Uncertainty
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
7. Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality: with Focus on Discrete Choice
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
8. Statistical Decision Theory Respecting Stochastic Dominance
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Statistical decision theory respecting stochastic dominance, The Japanese Economic Review, Springer (2023) (2023)
9. Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage when Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023)

2022

10. Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up
    Papers, arXiv.org
11. Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2022) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Minimax-regret climate policy with deep uncertainty in climate modeling and intergenerational discounting, Ecological Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (3) (2022)
12. Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups
    Papers, arXiv.org
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022)
13. Patient-Centered Appraisal of Race-Free Clinical Risk Assessment
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Patient‐centered appraisal of race‐free clinical risk assessment, Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2022) (2022)
14. Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Using measures of race to make clinical predictions: Decision making, patient health, and fairness, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023) View citations (1) (2023)

2021

15. Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
16. Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (30)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019)
    See also Journal Article Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2021) View citations (30) (2021)
17. Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
18. Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with Focus on Personalized Medicine
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2021) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Probabilistic prediction for binary treatment choice: With focus on personalized medicine, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (3) (2023)
19. Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)

2020

20. Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
21. Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (61)
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2020) View citations (61)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (65)
    See also Journal Article Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2021) View citations (31) (2021)
22. Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (4)

2019

23. Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
24. Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-onset Dementia
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
25. Remarks on statistical inference for statistical decisions
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (1)
26. Statistical inference for statistical decisions
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)

2018

27. Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (12) (2022)
28. The Lure of Incredible Certitude
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The lure of incredible certitude, Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press (2020) View citations (2) (2020)

2017

29. Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
30. Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (67)
    See also Journal Article Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press (2018) View citations (92) (2018)
    Chapter Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (61) (2017)

2016

31. Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2015

32. Clinical trial design enabling e-optimal treatment rules
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)
33. Clinical trial design enabling epsilon-optimal treatment rules
    Carlo Alberto Notebooks, Collegio Carlo Alberto
34. How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2018) View citations (82) (2018)

2014

35. Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
36. The Quantile Performance Of Statistical Treatment Rules Using Hypothesis Tests To Allocate A Population To Two Treatments
    Carlo Alberto Notebooks, Collegio Carlo Alberto View citations (7)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2014)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2014) View citations (7)
37. Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2013

38. First- and Second-order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (37)
    Also in Economics Working Paper Series, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science (2012) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence, Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier (2013) View citations (37) (2013)

2012

39. Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
    See also Journal Article Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2014) View citations (3) (2014)
40. Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
41. Identification of income-leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (1)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2012) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Identification of income–leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy, Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society (2014) View citations (27) (2014)

2011

42. Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
43. Policy analysis with incredible certitude
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (35)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2011) View citations (37) (2011)

2010

44. Identification of treatment response with social interactions
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Identification of treatment response with social interactions, Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2013) View citations (121) (2013)

2009

45. Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2011) View citations (69) (2011)
46. WHEN CONSENSUS CHOICE DOMINATES INDIVIDUALISM: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions under Uncertainty
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article When consensus choice dominates individualism: Jensen's inequality and collective decisions under uncertainty, Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society (2010) View citations (5) (2010)

2008

47. Adaptive partial policy innovation: coping with ambiguity through diversification
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (2)
48. Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
49. Partial Prescriptions For Decisions With Partial Knowledge
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
50. Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article USING ELICITED CHOICE PROBABILITIES TO ESTIMATE RANDOM UTILITY MODELS: PREFERENCES FOR ELECTRICITY RELIABILITY, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2010) View citations (94) (2010)

2007

51. Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, With Application To Drug Approval
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in Levine's Working Paper Archive, David K. Levine (2007) View citations (10)

2006

52. Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2009) View citations (264) (2009)

2005

53. Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
54. Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (41)
    See also Journal Article Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2011) View citations (86) (2011)
55. Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
    See also Journal Article Search Profiling With Partial Knowledge of Deterrence, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2006) View citations (21) (2006)

2004

56. Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (34)
    See also Journal Article Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2006) View citations (94) (2006)
57. Walk or Wait? An Empirical Analysis of Street Crossing Decisions
    GSIA Working Papers, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business View citations (1)
    Also in Discussion Papers, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi (2003)
    See also Journal Article Walk or wait? An empirical analysis of street crossing decisions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2005) View citations (2) (2005)

2003

58. "Will Social Security Be There For You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (25)
59. Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (7)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2003)
    See also Journal Article Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2004) View citations (400) (2004)
60. How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)
61. Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (4)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2003)
    See also Journal Article Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2004) View citations (254) (2004)

2002

62. Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
63. Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions
    JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research View citations (21)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (22)

2000

64. Economic Analysis of Social Interactions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1024)
    See also Journal Article Economic Analysis of Social Interactions, Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association (2000) View citations (1028) (2000)
65. Regressions, Short and Long
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Regressions, Short and Long, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2002) View citations (28) (2002)
66. Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)

1999

67. Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
68. Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
    Also in IPR working papers, Institute for Policy Resarch at Northwestern University
    See also Journal Article Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations, Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press (2000) View citations (49) (2000)

1998

69. Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
    Also in Virginia Economics Online Papers, University of Virginia, Department of Economics (1998) View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2000) View citations (419) (2000)

1997

70. Nonparametric Analysis of Randomized Experiments With Missing Covariate and Outcome Data
    Working Papers, University of Iowa, Department of Economics View citations (13)

1996

71. Bounding Disagreements About Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (11)
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1995) View citations (2)
72. Censoring of Outcomes and Regressors Due To Survey Nonresponse: Identification and Estimation Using Weights and Imputations
    Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1995) View citations (39)
    Working Papers, University of Iowa, Department of Economics (1995) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Censoring of outcomes and regressors due to survey nonresponse: Identification and estimation using weights and imputations, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1998) View citations (113) (1998)
73. Identification of Anonymous Endogenous Interactions
    Working Papers, Santa Fe Institute View citations (2)
74. Monotone Treatment Response
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
    See also Journal Article Monotone Treatment Response, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1997) View citations (192) (1997)
75. Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (16)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations (17)
    Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (43)
76. Treatment Under Amibiguity
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
    Also in Working Papers, Santa Fe Institute (1996) View citations (1)

1995

77. Learning About Social Programs from Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (6)
    Also in Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (7)
78. Review Article: The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (25)
79. What Can Be Learned About Population Parameters when the Data Are Contaminated
    Working Papers, University of Iowa, Department of Economics View citations (5)

1994

80. ELICITING STUDENT EXPECTATIONS OF THE RETURNS TO SCHOOLING
    Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (12)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1994) View citations (11)
    Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (73)
    See also Journal Article Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling, Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press (1996) View citations (213) (1996)
81. JOINT CENSORING OF REGRESSORS AND OUTCOMES:SURVEY NONRESPONSE AND ATTRITION
    Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1994)
82. SIMULTANEITY WITH DOWNWARD SLOPING DEMAND
    Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes (1994)
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1994)
83. Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations
    Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (32)
    Also in Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (110)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1994) View citations (24)

1993

84. Identification from Response-Based Samples
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
85. The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article The Mixing Problem in Programme Evaluation, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (1997) View citations (33) (1997)
86. What Do Controlled Experiments Reveal About Outcomes When Treatments Vary?
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (1)
    Also in Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (1)

1992

87. Identification And Robustness In The Presence Of Errors In Data
    SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute View citations (1)
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1992) View citations (1)
    Working Papers, University of Iowa, Department of Economics (1992) View citations (1)
88. Identification Problems In The Social Sciences
    SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute View citations (2)
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1992) View citations (105)

1991

89. Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (25)
    See also Chapter Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1993) View citations (160) (1993)
90. Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem
    SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute View citations (9)
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1991) View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (1993) View citations (3287) (1993)

1990

91. ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECT OF FAMILY STUCTURE DURING ADOLESCENCE ON HIGHT SCHOOL GRADUATION
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (41)
92. DYNAMIC CHOICE IN A SOCIAL SETTING
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (3)
93. SEVERITY OF SELECTION PROBLEM IN THE ABSENCE OF PRIOR INFORMATION
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
94. THE SELECTION PROBLEM
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (77)
95. The Identification problem Under Contaminated Sampling
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems

1989

96. ESTIMATION OF BEST PREDICTORS OF BENARY RESPONSE
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Estimation of best predictors of binary response, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1989) View citations (25) (1989)
97. NONPARAMETRIC BOUNDS ON TREATMENT EFFECTS
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1990) View citations (333) (1990)
98. REGRESSION
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
    See also Journal Article Regression, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association (1991) View citations (12) (1991)
99. THE LOGIC MODEL AND RESPONSE-BASED SAMPLES
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
    Also in Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1988) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Logit Model and Response-Based Samples, Sociological Methods & Research (1989) View citations (24) (1989)
100. THE USE OF INTENTIONS DATA TO PREDICT BEHAVIOUR: A BEST- CASE ANALYSIS
     Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (33)

1988

101. Nonparametric Estimation Of Expectations In The Analysis Of Discrete Choice Under Uncertainty
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute
102. ORDINAL UTILITY MODELS OF DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
     Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems View citations (54)
     Also in SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute (1986)

1986

103. Estimation By The Analogy Principle
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute

1985

104. Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence From the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
     See also Chapter Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (20) (1987)
105. Operational Characteristics Of Maximum Score Estimation
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute
     See also Journal Article Operational characteristics of maximum score estimation, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1986) View citations (45) (1986)
106. Semiparametric Analysis Of Random Effects Linear Models From Binary Panel Data
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute View citations (4)
     See also Journal Article Semiparametric Analysis of Random Effects Linear Models from Binary Panel Data, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1987) View citations (211) (1987)

1984

107. Monte-Carlo Evidence On Adaptive Maximum LIkelihood Estimation Of A Regression
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute
108. Semiparametric Analysis Of Discrete Response: Asymptotic Properties Of The Maximum Score Estimator
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute View citations (2)
     See also Journal Article Semiparametric analysis of discrete response: Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1985) View citations (285) (1985)

1983

109. Adaptive Estimation Of Non-Linear Regression Models
     SSRI Workshop Series, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute

Undated

110. Educational choice (vouchers) and social mobility
     Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (49)
     See also Journal Article Educational choice (vouchers) and social mobility, Economics of Education Review, Elsevier (1992) View citations (51) (1992)
111. Perceptions of economic vulnerability: First evidence from the survey of economic expectations
     Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty View citations (1)
112. Probabilistic Polling
     IPR working papers, Institute for Policy Resarch at Northwestern University
113. Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data: General Issues and Application to a Higher Education Block Grant Program
     IPR working papers, Institute for Policy Resarch at Northwestern University

Journal Articles

2023

1. Preface to the Special Issue on “Statistical Decision Theory and Treatment Choice”
   The Japanese Economic Review, 2023, 74, (4), 445-446
2. Probabilistic prediction for binary treatment choice: With focus on personalized medicine
   Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 234, (2), 647-663 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with Focus on Personalized Medicine, NBER Working Papers (2021) View citations (4) (2021)
3. Statistical decision theory respecting stochastic dominance
   The Japanese Economic Review, 2023, 74, (4), 447-469
   See also Working Paper Statistical Decision Theory Respecting Stochastic Dominance, Papers (2023) View citations (2) (2023)
4. Using measures of race to make clinical predictions: Decision making, patient health, and fairness
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023, 120, (35), e2303370120 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness, NBER Working Papers (2022) View citations (1) (2022)

2022

5. Balancing data privacy and usability in the federal statistical system
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022, 119, (31), e2104906119 View citations (1)
6. Minimax-regret climate policy with deep uncertainty in climate modeling and intergenerational discounting
   Ecological Economics, 2022, 201, (C) View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting, NBER Working Papers (2022) View citations (3) (2022)
7. Minimax-regret sample design in anticipation of missing data, with application to panel data
   Journal of Econometrics, 2022, 226, (1), 104-114 View citations (1)
8. Patient‐centered appraisal of race‐free clinical risk assessment
   Health Economics, 2022, 31, (10), 2109-2114
   See also Working Paper Patient-Centered Appraisal of Race-Free Clinical Risk Assessment, Papers (2022) (2022)
9. Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia
   Journal of the European Economic Association, 2022, 20, (1), 187-221 View citations (6)
10. Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study
    Journal of Econometrics, 2022, 231, (1), 265-281 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study, NBER Working Papers (2018) View citations (19) (2018)

2021

11. Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald
    Econometrica, 2021, 89, (6), 2827-2853 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald, Papers (2021) View citations (30) (2021)
12. Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem
    Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 220, (1), 181-192 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem, NBER Working Papers (2020) View citations (61) (2020)
13. Evaluating the maximum regret of statistical treatment rules with sample data on treatment response
    Stata Journal, 2021, 21, (1), 97-122 View citations (1)

2020

14. Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty
    Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2020, 11, (3), 341-356 View citations (9)
15. Judicial and Clinical Decision-Making under Uncertainty
    Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), 2020, 176, (1), 33-43 View citations (2)
16. TOWARDS REASONABLE PATIENT CARE UNDER UNCERTAINTY
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 2020, 38, (2), 227-245 View citations (1)
17. The lure of incredible certitude
    Economics and Philosophy, 2020, 36, (2), 216-245 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper The Lure of Incredible Certitude, NBER Working Papers (2018) View citations (1) (2018)

2019

18. Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019, 116, (16), 7634-7641 View citations (9)
19. Predicting kidney transplant outcomes with partial knowledge of HLA mismatch
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019, 116, (41), 20339-20345 View citations (4)
20. Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing
    The American Statistician, 2019, 73, (S1), 296-304 View citations (16)
21. Trial Size for Near-Optimal Choice Between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment: Reconsidering MSLT-II
    The American Statistician, 2019, 73, (S1), 305-311 View citations (10)
22. Tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment under uncertainty
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019, 116, (46), 22990-22997 View citations (5)

2018

23. Credible ecological inference for medical decisions with personalized risk assessment
    Quantitative Economics, 2018, 9, (2), 541-569 View citations (12)
24. How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, 100, (2), 232-244 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions, NBER Working Papers (2015) View citations (1) (2015)
25. More on random utility models with bounded ambiguity
    Theory and Decision, 2018, 84, (2), 205-213
26. Reasonable patient care under uncertainty
    Health Economics, 2018, 27, (10), 1397-1421 View citations (20)
27. Response to commentaries on “Reasonable patient care under uncertainty”
    Health Economics, 2018, 27, (10), 1431-1434 View citations (18)
28. SURVEY MEASURES OF FAMILY DECISION PROCESSES FOR ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SCHOOLING DECISIONS
    Economic Inquiry, 2018, 56, (1), 81-99 View citations (21)
29. Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2018, 32, (1), 411 - 471 View citations (92)
    See also Chapter Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, NBER Chapters, 2017, 411-471 (2017) View citations (61) (2017)
    Working Paper Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (67) (2017)

2017

30. Evaluating the maximum MSE of mean estimators with missing data
    Stata Journal, 2017, 17, (3), 723-735 View citations (4)
31. Mandating vaccination with unknown indirect effects
    Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2017, 19, (3), 603-619 View citations (19)
32. More Data or Better Data? A Statistical Decision Problem
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2017, 84, (4), 1583-1605 View citations (23)
33. Optimize, satisfice, or choose without deliberation? A simple minimax-regret assessment
    Theory and Decision, 2017, 83, (2), 155-173 View citations (13)

2016

34. Credible interval estimates for official statistics with survey nonresponse
    Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 191, (2), 293-301 View citations (12)
35. Interpreting Point Predictions: Some Logical Issues
    Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, 2016, 10, (2-4), 238-261 View citations (5)

2015

36. Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2015, 53, (3), 631-53 View citations (46)
37. Randomizing Regulatory Approval for Adaptive Diversification and Deterrence
    The Journal of Legal Studies, 2015, 44, (S2), S367 - S385

2014

38. Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation
    Economic Journal, 2014, (576), 359-376 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation, NBER Working Papers (2012) (2012)
39. Identification of income–leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy
    Quantitative Economics, 2014, 5, 145-174 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Identification of income-leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy, CeMMAP working papers (2012) View citations (1) (2012)

2013

40. Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2013, 31, (3), 273-275
41. First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence
    Games and Economic Behavior, 2013, 81, (C), 232-254 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper First- and Second-order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence, 2013 Meeting Papers (2013) View citations (37) (2013)
42. Identification of treatment response with social interactions
    Econometrics Journal, 2013, 16, (1), S1-S23 View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper Identification of treatment response with social interactions, CeMMAP working papers (2010) View citations (3) (2010)
43. Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’
    Economic Journal, 2013, F412-F415 View citations (104)
44. Status Quo Deference and Policy Choice under Ambiguity
    Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), 2013, 169, (1), 116-128 View citations (3)

2012

45. Process and context in choice models
    Marketing Letters, 2012, 23, (2), 439-456 View citations (27)

2011

46. Actualist rationality
    Theory and Decision, 2011, 71, (2), 195-210 View citations (2)
47. Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, (7), 1059-1078 View citations (41)
48. Choosing Treatment Policies Under Ambiguity
    Annual Review of Economics, 2011, 3, (1), 25-49 View citations (18)
49. Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment: Some Positive and Normative Analysis
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011, 43, (2‐3), 441-459 View citations (4)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011, 43, 441-459 (2011) View citations (6)
50. Genes, Eyeglasses, and Social Policy
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2011, 25, (4), 83-94 View citations (35)
51. Introduction: ‘Measurement and analysis of subjective expectations’
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, (3), 351-351 View citations (2)
52. Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, (3), 352-370 View citations (86)
    See also Working Paper Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns, NBER Working Papers (2005) View citations (41) (2005)
53. Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, (3), 454-478 View citations (69)
    See also Working Paper Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation, Staff Reports (2009) View citations (7) (2009)
54. Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
    Economic Journal, 2011, 121, (554), F261-F289 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper Policy analysis with incredible certitude, CeMMAP working papers (2011) View citations (35) (2011)

2010

55. Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2010, 28, (2), 219-231 View citations (194)
56. USING ELICITED CHOICE PROBABILITIES TO ESTIMATE RANDOM UTILITY MODELS: PREFERENCES FOR ELECTRICITY RELIABILITY
    International Economic Review, 2010, 51, (2), 421-440 View citations (94)
    See also Working Paper Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability, NBER Working Papers (2008) View citations (2) (2008)
57. Unlearning and Discovery
    The American Economist, 2010, 55, (1), 9-18
58. When consensus choice dominates individualism: Jensen's inequality and collective decisions under uncertainty
    Quantitative Economics, 2010, 1, (1), 187-202 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper WHEN CONSENSUS CHOICE DOMINATES INDIVIDUALISM: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions under Uncertainty, NBER Working Papers (2009) View citations (3) (2009)

2009

59. Adaptive Partial Drug Approval: A Health Policy Proposal
    The Economists' Voice, 2009, 6, (4), 5 View citations (6)
60. Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009, 27, 30-41 View citations (264)
    See also Working Paper Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters, NBER Working Papers (2006) View citations (9) (2006)
61. More on monotone instrumental variables
    Econometrics Journal, 2009, 12, (s1), S200-S216 View citations (63)
62. Social Planning with Partial Knowledge of Social Interactions
    Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), 2009, 165, (1), 146-158 View citations (1)
63. THE 2009 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: DIVERSIFIED TREATMENT UNDER AMBIGUITY
    International Economic Review, 2009, 50, (4), 1013-1041 View citations (18)

2008

64. Studying Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice
    Annals of Economics and Statistics, 2008, (91-92), 93-105 View citations (2)

2007

65. ECONOMICS TO ECONOMETRICS: IN HONOR OF DANIEL L. McFADDEN
    International Economic Review, 2007, 48, (4), 1091-1092
66. Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2007, 5, (2-3), 369-379 View citations (99)
67. Minimax-regret treatment choice with missing outcome data
    Journal of Econometrics, 2007, 139, (1), 105-115 View citations (46)
68. PARTIAL IDENTIFICATION OF COUNTERFACTUAL CHOICE PROBABILITIES
    International Economic Review, 2007, 48, (4), 1393-1410 View citations (38)

2006

69. Identification and estimation of statistical functionals using incomplete data
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 132, (2), 445-459 View citations (24)
70. Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets
    Economics Letters, 2006, 91, (3), 425-429 View citations (94)
    See also Working Paper Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets, NBER Working Papers (2004) View citations (34) (2004)
71. Measuring Pension‐benefit Expectations Probabilistically
    LABOUR, 2006, 20, (2), 201-236 View citations (25)
72. Profiling: Introduction to the Feature
    Economic Journal, 2006, 116, (515), F347-F350 View citations (3)
73. Search Profiling With Partial Knowledge of Deterrence
    Economic Journal, 2006, 116, (515), F385-F401 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence, NBER Working Papers (2005) (2005)

2005

74. Optimal Search Profiling with Linear Deterrence
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (2), 122-126 View citations (5)
75. Walk or wait? An empirical analysis of street crossing decisions
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, 20, (4), 529-548 View citations (2)
    Also in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, 20, (4), 529-548 (2005) View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Walk or Wait? An Empirical Analysis of Street Crossing Decisions, GSIA Working Papers (2004) View citations (1) (2004)

2004

76. Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters
    Econometrica, 2004, 72, (6), 1845-1857 View citations (400)
    See also Working Paper Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters, CeMMAP working papers (2003) View citations (7) (2003)
77. How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18, (2), 51-66 View citations (73)
78. Measuring Expectations
    Econometrica, 2004, 72, (5), 1329-1376 View citations (737)
79. On the Construction of Bounds in Prospective Studies with Missing Ordinal Outcomes: Application to the Good Behavior Game Trial
    Biometrics, 2004, 60, (1), 154-164 View citations (11)
80. Social Learning from Private Experiences: The Dynamics of the Selection Problem
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2004, 71, (2), 443-458 View citations (30)
81. Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations
    Econometrica, 2004, 72, (4), 1221-1246 View citations (254)
    See also Working Paper Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations, CeMMAP working papers (2003) View citations (4) (2003)

2003

82. Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life
    Southern Economic Journal, 2003, 70, (1), 11-21 View citations (7)
83. Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2003, 1, (1), 181-211 View citations (56)

2002

84. Identification of decision rules in experiments on simple games of proposal and response
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (4-5), 880-891 View citations (86)
85. Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome
    Econometrica, 2002, 70, (2), 519-546 View citations (281)
86. Regressions, Short and Long
    Econometrica, 2002, 70, (1), 357-368 View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper Regressions, Short and Long, Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers (2000) View citations (2) (2000)
87. Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data
    Evaluation Review, 2002, 26, (4), 355-381 View citations (3)

2001

88. Bibliography of Daniel L. McFadden’s Publications, 1963‐2001
    Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2001, 103, (2), 231-239
89. Daniel McFadden and the Econometric Analysis of Discrete Choice
    Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2001, 103, (2), 217-230 View citations (23)
90. Designing Programs for Heterogeneous Populations: The Value of Covariate Information
    American Economic Review, 2001, 91, (2), 103-106 View citations (16)

2000

91. Economic Analysis of Social Interactions
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000, 14, (3), 115-136 View citations (1028)
    See also Working Paper Economic Analysis of Social Interactions, NBER Working Papers (2000) View citations (1024) (2000)
92. Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice
    Journal of Econometrics, 2000, 95, (2), 415-442 View citations (97)
93. Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling
    Econometrica, 2000, 68, (4), 997-1012 View citations (419)
    See also Working Paper Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling, NBER Technical Working Papers (1998) View citations (13) (1998)
94. Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations
    Journal of Human Resources, 2000, 35, (3), 447-479 View citations (49)
    See also Working Paper Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations, NBER Working Papers (1999) View citations (4) (1999)

1999

95. Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios
    Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1999, 19, (1-3), 49-66 View citations (68)

1998

96. Censoring of outcomes and regressors due to survey nonresponse: Identification and estimation using weights and imputations
    Journal of Econometrics, 1998, 84, (1), 37-58 View citations (113)
    See also Working Paper Censoring of Outcomes and Regressors Due To Survey Nonresponse: Identification and Estimation Using Weights and Imputations, Econometrics (1996) View citations (1) (1996)

1997

97. Monotone Treatment Response
    Econometrica, 1997, 65, (6), 1311-1334 View citations (192)
    See also Working Paper Monotone Treatment Response, Working papers (1996) (1996)
98. The Mixing Problem in Programme Evaluation
    The Review of Economic Studies, 1997, 64, (4), 537-553 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation, NBER Technical Working Papers (1993) View citations (4) (1993)

1996

99. Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling
    Journal of Human Resources, 1996, 31, (1), 1-26 View citations (213)
    See also Working Paper ELICITING STUDENT EXPECTATIONS OF THE RETURNS TO SCHOOLING, Econometrics (1994) View citations (12) (1994)
100. Learning about Treatment Effects from Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments
     Journal of Human Resources, 1996, 31, (4), 709-733 View citations (45)

1995

101. Identification and Robustness with Contaminated and Corrupted Data
     Econometrica, 1995, 63, (2), 281-302 View citations (177)
102. The Bell Curve: Review Article
     Journal of Economic Literature, 1995, 33, (2), 762-776 View citations (28)

1993

103. Distribution theory for the analysis of binary choice under uncertainty with nonparametric estimation of expectations
     Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 56, (3), 291-321 View citations (26)
104. Dynamic choice in social settings: Learning from the experiences of others
     Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 58, (1-2), 121-136 View citations (70)
105. Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem
     The Review of Economic Studies, 1993, 60, (3), 531-542 View citations (3287)
     See also Working Paper Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem, SSRI Workshop Series (1991) View citations (9) (1991)
106. Nonparametric and semiparametric approaches to discrete response analysis
     Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 58, (1-2), 1-2 View citations (4)

1992

107. Educational choice (vouchers) and social mobility
     Economics of Education Review, 1992, 11, (4), 351-369 View citations (51)
     See also Working Paper Educational choice (vouchers) and social mobility, Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers View citations (49)

1991

108. Regression
     Journal of Economic Literature, 1991, 29, (1), 34-50 View citations (12)
     See also Working Paper REGRESSION, Working papers (1989) (1989)

1990

109. Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects
     American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (2), 319-23 View citations (333)
     See also Working Paper NONPARAMETRIC BOUNDS ON TREATMENT EFFECTS, Working papers (1989) View citations (4) (1989)

1989

110. Anatomy of the Selection Problem
     Journal of Human Resources, 1989, 24, (3), 343-360 View citations (298)
111. Estimation of best predictors of binary response
     Journal of Econometrics, 1989, 40, (1), 97-123 View citations (25)
     See also Working Paper ESTIMATION OF BEST PREDICTORS OF BENARY RESPONSE, Working papers (1989) View citations (1) (1989)
112. Schooling as experimentation: a reappraisal of the postsecondary dropout phenomenon
     Economics of Education Review, 1989, 8, (4), 305-312 View citations (106)
113. The Logit Model and Response-Based Samples
     Sociological Methods & Research, 1989, 17, (3), 283-302 View citations (24)
     See also Working Paper THE LOGIC MODEL AND RESPONSE-BASED SAMPLES, Working papers (1989) (1989)

1987

114. Semiparametric Analysis of Random Effects Linear Models from Binary Panel Data
     Econometrica, 1987, 55, (2), 357-62 View citations (211)
     See also Working Paper Semiparametric Analysis Of Random Effects Linear Models From Binary Panel Data, SSRI Workshop Series (1985) View citations (4) (1985)
115. The demand for teleshopping: An application of discrete choice models
     Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1987, 17, (1), 109-121 View citations (10)

1986

116. Operational characteristics of maximum score estimation
     Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 32, (1), 85-108 View citations (45)
     See also Working Paper Operational Characteristics Of Maximum Score Estimation, SSRI Workshop Series (1985) (1985)
117. Semiparametric analysis of binary response from response-based samples
     Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 31, (1), 31-40 View citations (8)

1985

118. Semiparametric analysis of discrete response: Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator
     Journal of Econometrics, 1985, 27, (3), 313-333 View citations (285)
     See also Working Paper Semiparametric Analysis Of Discrete Response: Asymptotic Properties Of The Maximum Score Estimator, SSRI Workshop Series (1984) View citations (2) (1984)

1983

119. An Econometric Analysis of Automobile Scrappage
     Transportation Science, 1983, 17, (4), 365-375 View citations (8)
120. Analysis of equilibrium automobile holdings in Israel with aggregate discrete choice models
     Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1983, 17, (5), 373-389 View citations (11)
121. Closest Empirical Distribution Estimation
     Econometrica, 1983, 51, (2), 305-19 View citations (13)

1982

122. A Model of the Effect of Information Diffusion on Travel
     Transportation Science, 1982, 16, (2), 171-191
123. New Evidence on the Economic Determinants of Postsecondary Schooling Choices
     Journal of Human Resources, 1982, 17, (4), 477-498 View citations (64)

1981

124. A Behavioral Approach to Modelling Household Motor Vehicle Ownership and Applications to Aggregate Policy Analysis
     Environment and Planning A, 1981, 13, (4), 399-411 View citations (4)

1979

125. The Zero Elasticity Rule for Pricing a Government Service: A Summary of Findings
     Bell Journal of Economics, 1979, 10, (1), 211-223

1978

126. The Implications of Demand Instability for the Behavior of Firms: The Case of Residential Construction
     Real Estate Economics, 1978, 6, (2), 204-226 View citations (1)

1977

127. The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples
     Econometrica, 1977, 45, (8), 1977-88 View citations (363)

1975

128. Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice
     Journal of Econometrics, 1975, 3, (3), 205-228 View citations (395)

Books

2013

1. Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions
   Economics Books, Harvard University Press View citations (110)

Chapters

2017

1. Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, 2017, pp 411-471 View citations (61)
   See also Working Paper Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (67) (2017)
   Journal Article Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise, University of Chicago Press (2018) View citations (92) (2018)

1993

2. Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?
   A chapter in Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, 1993, pp 43-60 View citations (160)
   See also Working Paper Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (1991) View citations (25) (1991)

1987

3. Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972
   A chapter in Public Sector Payrolls, 1987, pp 291-316 View citations (20)
   See also Working Paper Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence From the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1985) View citations (2) (1985)

1986

4. Analog estimation of econometric models
   Chapter 43 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1986, vol. 4, pp 2559-2582

1976

5. An Empirical Investigation of Factors Which Influence College-Going Behavior
   A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, 1976, pp 391-419 View citations (6)

Software Items

2017

1. WALD_MSE: Stata module to calculate the maximum mean square error (MSE) of a point estimator of the mean
   Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics