Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

Charles Manski

No 16207, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. This paper develops a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitudes, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, and wishful extrapolation. I contrast these practices with my vision for credible policy analysis.

JEL-codes: C53 H43 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-07
Note: PE POL
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published as Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages F261-F289, 08.

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Journal Article: Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude (2011)
Working Paper: Policy analysis with incredible certitude (2011)
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