Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations

Jeff Dominitz and Charles Manski

Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers from University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty

Abstract: We have collected data on the one-year-ahead income expectations of members of American households in our Survey of Economic Expectations (SEE), a module of a national continuous telephone survey conducted at the University of Wisconsin. The income-expectations questions take this form: "What do you think is the percent chance (or what are the chances out of 100) that your total household income, before taxes, will be less than Y over the next 12 months?" We use the responses to a sequence of such questions posed for different income thresholds Y to estimate each respondent's subjective probability distribution for next year's household income. We use the estimates to study the cross- sectional variation in income expectations one year into the future.

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Related works:
Working Paper: Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations (1994)
Working Paper: Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations (1994)
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