Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

Charles Manski

No 20098, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Federal statistical agencies in the United States and analogous agencies elsewhere commonly report official economic statistics as point estimates, without accompanying measures of error. Users of the statistics may incorrectly view them as error-free or may incorrectly conjecture error magnitudes. This paper discusses strategies to mitigate misinterpretation of official statistics by communicating uncertainty to the public. Sampling error can be measured using established statistical principles. The challenge is to satisfactorily measure the various forms of non-sampling error. I find it useful to distinguish transitory statistical uncertainty, permanent statistical uncertainty, and conceptual uncertainty. I illustrate how each arises as the Bureau of Economic Analysis periodically revises GDP estimates, the Census Bureau generates household income statistics from surveys with non-response, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusts employment statistics.

JEL-codes: C82 E01 I32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: EFG PE TWP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published as Manski, Charles F. 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern." Journal of Economic Literature, 53 (3): 631-53. DOI: 10.1257/jel.53.3.631

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20098.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20098

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20098

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().