Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Microevidence of a Survey at High Frequency and of Distributions

Nikos Apokoritis, Gabriele Galati and Richhild Moessner
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Nikos Apokoritis: IRI

International Journal of Central Banking, 2025, vol. 21, issue 1, 201-234

Abstract: We analyze the anchoring of long-term euro-area inflation expectations in the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, by exploring a new weekly survey, conducted among around 25 macroanalysts from 2010 to 2018. We perform a battery of tests on level expectations from the weekly survey and measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey. These include measures of uncertainty, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, and deflation risk. We find that long-term euro-area inflation expectations remained broadly anchored to the European Central Bank’s inflation aim.

Date: 2025
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Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2025:q:1:a:4

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