Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions

Nikos Apokoritis, Gabriele Galati, Richhild Moessner and Federica Teppa

No 809, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: We shed new light on the anchoring of long-term euro area inflation expectations since the crisis by using micro evidence from a new survey at high (weekly) frequency. We find that long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored to the ECB's inflation aim, which has acted as a focal point. By contrast, we find no evidence that professional forecasts (reported by Consensus Economics) acted as focal points. But there are subtle signs of long-term inflation expectations not being perfectly well-anchored. Using measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey, namely uncertainty based on the full distribution, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5% and 2.5%, and the effect of short-term on long-term deflation risk, we find that long-term euro area inflation expectations have remained well-anchored, and have become better-anchored between 2011 and 2018.

Keywords: inflation; expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E58 F62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2019-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Microevidence of a Survey at High Frequency and of Distributions (2025)
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