An Elicitation Procedure for the Generalized Trapezoidal Distribution with a Uniform Central Stage

Johan René van Dorp (), Salvador Cruz Rambaud, Jose Pérez () and Rafael Herrerías Pleguezuelo ()
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Johan René van Dorp: Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052
Rafael Herrerías Pleguezuelo: Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

Decision Analysis, 2007, vol. 4, issue 3, 156-166

Abstract: Recent advances in computation technology for decision/simulation and uncertainty analyses have revived interest in the triangular distribution and its use to describe uncertainty of bounded input phenomena. The trapezoidal distribution is a generalization of the triangular distribution that allows for the specification of the modal value by means of a range of values rather than a single point estimate. Whereas the trapezoidal and the triangular distributions are restricted to linear geometric forms in the successive stages of the distribution, the generalized trapezoidal (GT) distribution allows for a nonlinear behavior at its tails and a linear incline (or decline) in the central stage. In this paper we develop two novel elicitation procedures for the parameters of a special case of the GT family by restricting ourselves to a uniform (horizontal) central stage in accordance with the central stage of the original trapezoidal distribution.

Keywords: expert judgment; distribution theory; simulation and uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:4:y:2007:i:3:p:156-166

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