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Decision Analysis

2004 - 2016

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Volume 13, issue 4, 2016

An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules pp. 223-242 Downloads
Arthur Carvalho
The Metalog Distributions pp. 243-277 Downloads
Thomas W. Keelin
Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts? pp. 278-291 Downloads
Johannes Siebert

Volume 13, issue 3, 2016

Long-Term Care Insurance Decisions pp. 173-191 Downloads
Samuel E. Bodily and Bryan Furman
Equilibrium Notions for Agents with Cumulative Prospect Theory Preferences pp. 192-208 Downloads
Kerim Keskin
On the Positive Expected Utility of Combination Wagers pp. 209-212 Downloads
Babatunde Buraimo, David Peel and Rob Simmons
Remembering Howard Raiffa pp. 213-218 Downloads
Ralph L. Keeney
The Legacy of Howard Raiffa pp. 219-220 Downloads
David Bell

Volume 13, issue 2, 2016

Reducing Risk and Improving Incentives in Funding Entrepreneurs pp. 101-116 Downloads
Samuel E. Bodily
Using Means Objectives to Present Risk Information pp. 117-127 Downloads
Candice H. Huynh and Jay Simon
Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses pp. 128-152 Downloads
Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers and Philip E. Tetlock
Goals as Reference Points: Empirical Evidence from a Virtual Reward System pp. 153-171 Downloads
Tobias von Rechenberg, Dominik Gutt and Dennis Kundisch

Volume 13, issue 1, 2016

Probabilistic Warnings in National Security Crises: Pearl Harbor Revisited pp. 1-25 Downloads
David M. Blum and M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Its Followers pp. 26-50 Downloads
Johannes Siebert, Detlof von Winterfeldt and Richard S. John
Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction pp. 51-67 Downloads
Venkata R. Prava, Robert T. Clemen, Benjamin F. Hobbs and Melissa A. Kenney
Sequential Shortest Path Interdiction with Incomplete Information pp. 68-98 Downloads
Juan S. Borrero, Oleg A. Prokopyev and Denis Sauré

Volume 12, issue 4, 2015

“Gaming the System”: Decision Making by Interdependent Critical Infrastructure pp. 155-172 Downloads
Allison C. Reilly, Andrew Samuel and Seth D. Guikema
Modeling Public–Private Partnerships in Disaster Management via Centralized and Decentralized Models pp. 173-189 Downloads
Peiqiu Guan and Jun Zhuang
Equal Tails: A Simple Method to Elicit Utility Under Violations of Expected Utility pp. 190-204 Downloads
Manel Baucells and Antonio Villasís
Theory of Generalized Risk Attitudes pp. 205-227 Downloads
Janne Gustafsson

Volume 12, issue 3, 2015

Search Before Trade-offs Are Known pp. 105-121 Downloads
Otso Massala and Ilia Tsetlin
Use of Insurance Against a Small Loss as an Incentive Strategy pp. 122-129 Downloads
Daniella Meeker, Christin Thompson, Greg Strylewicz, Tara K. Knight and Jason Doctor
The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds pp. 130-143 Downloads
Clintin P. Davis-Stober, David V. Budescu, Stephen B. Broomell and Jason Dana
The Impact of Learning by Thought on Violations of Independence and Coalescing pp. 144-152 Downloads
Michael H. Birnbaum and Ulrich Schmidt

Volume 12, issue 2, 2015

Possibility Engineering pp. 61-73 Downloads
James C. Felli
Weighted Almost Stochastic Dominance: Revealing the Preferences of Most Decision Makers in the St. Petersburg Paradox pp. 74-80 Downloads
Chin Hon Tan
Air Force Cyberspace Investment Analysis pp. 81-95 Downloads
Gregory S. Parnell, Rudolph E. Butler, Stephen J. Wichmann, Mike Tedeschi and David Merritt
An Empirical Examination of Multiple Objective Risk Attitudes pp. 96-103 Downloads
William K. Klimack, Jack M. Kloeber, Kenneth W. Bauer and Mark E. Oxley

Volume 12, issue 1, 2015

Nonconvex Equilibrium Prices in Prediction Markets pp. 1-14 Downloads
Ashwin K. Seshadri
Project Management Decisions with Uncertain Targets pp. 15-28 Downloads
Jeffrey M. Keisler and Robert F. Bordley
Collaborative Decision Making pp. 29-45 Downloads
Daniel Owen
Deciding on the Decision Situation to Analyze: The Critical First Step of a Decision Analysis pp. 46-58 Downloads
Roberto Ley-Borrás

Volume 11, issue 4, 2014

Multiattribute Procurement Auctions: Efficiency and Social Welfare in Theory and Practice pp. 215-232 Downloads
Gregory E. Kersten
Decomposing a Utility Function Based on Discrete Distribution Independence pp. 233-249 Downloads
Ying He, James S. Dyer and John C. Butler
Augmented Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation for Two-Stage Stochastic Programs with Recourse pp. 250-264 Downloads
Tahir Ekin, Nicholas G. Polson and Refik Soyer
Pancreatic Cancer: Insights from Counterterrorism Theories pp. 265-276 Downloads
Mary F. McGuire

Volume 11, issue 3, 2014

A Generalized Sampling Approach for Multilinear Utility Functions Given Partial Preference Information pp. 147-170 Downloads
Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel
Exploding Offers Can Blow Up in More Than One Way pp. 171-188 Downloads
Nelson Lau, Yakov Bart, J. Neil Bearden and Ilia Tsetlin
The Value of Information in Some Variations of the Stopping Problem pp. 189-203 Downloads
Debarun Bhattacharjya and Léa A. Deleris
Reducing Interval-Valued Decision Trees to Conventional Ones: Comments on Decision Trees with Single and Multiple Interval-Valued Objectives pp. 204-212 Downloads
Yongzhi Cao

Volume 11, issue 2, 2014

Scale Dependence and Ranking Intervals in Additive Value Models Under Incomplete Preference Information pp. 83-104 Downloads
Antti Punkka and Ahti Salo
Decision Performance and Safety Performance: A Value-Focused Thinking Study in the Oil Industry pp. 105-116 Downloads
Jason R. W. Merrick and Martha Grabowski
A Value-Focused Approach to Energy Transformation in the United States Department of Defense pp. 117-132 Downloads
Jay Simon, Eva Regnier and Laura Whitney
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme pp. 133-145 Downloads
Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone and Lyle H. Ungar

Volume 11, issue 1, 2014

Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions for Portfolio Decision Analysis pp. 1-20 Downloads
Juuso Liesiö
Augmenting Ordinal Methods of Attribute Weight Approximation pp. 21-26 Downloads
Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg and Ying He
Evolving Risk Perceptions About Near-Miss Terrorist Events pp. 27-42 Downloads
Robin L. Dillon, Catherine H. Tinsley and William J. Burns
Modeling Credible Retaliation Threats in Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons Using Partial Inspection---A Three-Stage Game pp. 43-62 Downloads
Xiaojun (Gene) Shan and Jun Zhuang
Improving the Value of Analysis for Biosurveillance pp. 63-81 Downloads
Henry H. Willis and Melinda Moore

Volume 10, issue 4, 2013

From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security pp. 277-278 Downloads
Rakesh K. Sarin
Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions pp. 279-291 Downloads
Stephen C. Hora, Benjamin R. Fransen, Natasha Hawkins and Irving Susel
Choosing a Strictly Proper Scoring Rule pp. 292-304 Downloads
Edgar C. Merkle and Mark Steyvers
Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts pp. 305-326 Downloads
Christopher W. Karvetski, Kenneth C. Olson, David R. Mandel and Charles R. Twardy
Why Do Simple Heuristics Perform Well in Choices with Binary Attributes? pp. 327-340 Downloads
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
The Value of Information in Portfolio Problems with Dependent Projects pp. 341-351 Downloads
Debarun Bhattacharjya, Jo Eidsvik and Tapan Mukerji
Information Security Investment When Hackers Disseminate Knowledge pp. 352-368 Downloads
Xing Gao, Weijun Zhong and Shue Mei

Volume 10, issue 3, 2013

From the Editor —Optimal Betting, Reducing Unnecessary Mammography in Breast Cancer Diagnosis, Product Line Design, and Value of Information pp. 187-188 Downloads
Rakesh K. Sarin
Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion pp. 189-199 Downloads
Rose D. Baker and Ian G. McHale
Optimal Policies for Reducing Unnecessary Follow-Up Mammography Exams in Breast Cancer Diagnosis pp. 200-224 Downloads
Oguzhan Alagoz, Jagpreet Chhatwal and Elizabeth S. Burnside
Product Line Design with Deliberation Costs: A Two-Stage Process pp. 225-244 Downloads
Hui Xiong and Ying-Ju Chen
Decreasing Marginal Value of Information Under Symmetric Loss pp. 245-256 Downloads
Sushil Bikhchandani and John W. Mamer
Effects of Risk Aversion on the Value of Information in Two-Action Decision Problems pp. 257-275 Downloads
Ali E. Abbas, N. Onur Bakır, Georgia-Ann Klutke and Zhengwei Sun

Volume 10, issue 2, 2013

From the Editors ---Group Decisions, Preference Elicitation, Experienced Utility, Survival Probabilities, and Portfolio Value of Information pp. 99-102 Downloads
Rakesh K. Sarin and L. Robin Keller
Foundations for Group Decision Analysis pp. 103-120 Downloads
Ralph L. Keeney
Toward an Improved Methodology to Construct and Reconcile Decision Analytic Preference Judgments pp. 121-134 Downloads
Richard M. Anderson and Robert Clemen
Determinants of Experienced Utility: Laws and Implications pp. 135-151 Downloads
Manel Baucells and Rakesh K. Sarin
Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data pp. 152-170 Downloads
Peter Hudomiet and Robert J. Willis
Components of Portfolio Value of Information pp. 171-185 Downloads
Kun Zan and J. Eric Bickel

Volume 10, issue 1, 2013

From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback pp. 1-5 Downloads
Rakesh K. Sarin and L. Robin Keller
Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions pp. 6-25 Downloads
Robert K. Hammond and J. Eric Bickel
Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information pp. 26-41 Downloads
Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel
Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity pp. 42-62 Downloads
Kevin S. Ni, Daniel Faissol, Thomas Edmunds and Richard Wheeler
Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers pp. 63-81 Downloads
Huseyin Cavusoglu, Young Kwark, Bin Mai and Srinivasan Raghunathan
WholeSoldier Performance Appraisal to Support Mentoring and Personnel Decisions pp. 82-97 Downloads
Robert A. Dees, Scott T. Nestler and Robert Kewley
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