Decision Analysis

2004 - 2025

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From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis pp. 251-255: L. Robin Keller, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, Vicki M. Bier, David V. Budescu, John C. Butler, Philippe Delquié, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jason R. W. Merrick, Ahti Salo and George Wu
Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities pp. 256-268: David J. Johnstone, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity? pp. 269-285: Alexander Zimper
Target-Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility pp. 286-302: Chen Wang and Vicki M. Bier
A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models pp. 303-321: Stephen P. Chambal, Jeffery D. Weir, Yucel R. Kahraman and Alex J. Gutman

From the Editor ---Multiattribute and Intertemporal Preferences, Probability, and Stochastic Processes: Models and Assessment pp. 165-169: L. Robin Keller
A Multiattribute Sealed-Bid Procurement Auction with Multiple Budgets for Government Vendor Selection pp. 170-179: Jay Simon and Francois Melese
The Multiattribute Utility Tree pp. 180-205: Ali E. Abbas
Quantile-Parameterized Distributions pp. 206-219: Thomas W. Keelin and Bradford W. Powley
A Discrete Time Approach for Modeling Two-Factor Mean-Reverting Stochastic Processes pp. 220-232: Warren J. Hahn and James S. Dyer
Consistency Among Elicitation Techniques for Intertemporal Choice: A Within-Subjects Investigation of the Anomalies pp. 233-246: Jeffery L. Guyse and Jay Simon

From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating pp. 83-87: L. Robin Keller and Kelly M. Kophazi
Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation pp. 88-102: Naraphorn Haphuriwat, Vicki M. Bier and Henry H. Willis
Decomposing the Cross Derivatives of a Multiattribute Utility Function into Risk Attitude and Value pp. 103-116: Ali E. Abbas
Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events pp. 117-127: Robert F. Bordley
Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment pp. 128-144: Guanchun Wang, Sanjeev R. Kulkarni, H. Vincent Poor and Daniel N. Osherson
Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? pp. 145-157: Xiting Yang, Joseph B. Kadane, Heidi M. Crane and Mari M. Kitahata

Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor pp. 1-3: L. Robin Keller
Partial-Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small-Edge Asymptotics pp. 4-9: Joseph B. Kadane
Psychological Heuristics for Making Inferences: Definition, Performance, and the Emerging Theory and Practice pp. 10-29: Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program pp. 30-45: David J. Caswell, Ronald A. Howard and M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game pp. 46-70: Kjell Hausken and Jun Zhuang
Playing Squash Against Ralph Keeney: Should Weaker Players Always Prefer Shorter Games? pp. 71-77: Jeryl L. Mumpower
Call for Papers ---Special Issue of Decision Analysis on Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk pp. 82-82: L. Robin Keller, Refik Soyer, Fabrizio Ruggeri and Jason R. W. Merrick

From the Editors pp. 327-330: L. Robin Keller, Ali Abbas, Manel Baucells, Vicki M. Bier, David Budescu, John C. Butler, Philippe Delquié, Jason R. W. Merrick, Ahti Salo and George Wu
Darden's Luckiest Student: Lessons from a High-Stakes Risk Experiment pp. 331-345: Samuel E. Bodily and Phillip E. Pfeifer
Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education pp. 346-357: J. Eric Bickel
Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach pp. 358-365: Zeynep Erkin, Matthew D. Bailey, Lisa M. Maillart, Andrew J. Schaefer and Mark S. Roberts
Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention pp. 366-377: Anthony M. Barrett
Paradoxes in Learning and the Marginal Value of Information pp. 378-403: Peter I. Frazier and Warren B. Powell

From the Editor pp. 235-237: L. Robin Keller
Improving the Generation of Decision Objectives pp. 238-255: Samuel D. Bond, Kurt A. Carlson and Ralph L. Keeney
Cardinal Scales for Health Evaluation pp. 256-281: Charles M. Harvey and Lars Peter Østerdal
How Riskily Do I Invest? The Role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions, and Overconfidence pp. 282-301: Alen Nosić and Martin Weber
Bivariate Stochastic Dominance and Substitute Risk-(In)dependent Utilities pp. 302-312: Michel Denuit and Louis Eeckhoudt
Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Tolerance pp. 313-321: Bjørn Sandvik and Lars Thorlund-Petersen

From the Editors pp. 151-154: L. Robin Keller and Kelly M. Kophazi
Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile? pp. 155-171: Jason R. W. Merrick and Laura A. McLay
Decision-Focused Transformation of Additive Value Models to Improve Communication pp. 172-184: Robert A. Dees, Matthew F. Dabkowski and Gregory S. Parnell
Valuing Multifactor Real Options Using an Implied Binomial Tree pp. 185-195: Tianyang Wang and James S. Dyer
Generalized Diagonal Band Copulas with Two-Sided Generating Densities pp. 196-214: Samuel Kotz and Johan René van Dorp
The Role of Some Functional Equations in Decision Analysis pp. 215-228: Ali E. Abbas and János Aczél

Honoring Michael H. Rothkopf's Legacy of Rigor and Relevance in Auction Theory: From the Editors pp. 1-4: Robert F. Bordley, Elena Katok and L. Robin Keller
Procurement Auctions for Differentiated Goods pp. 6-22: Jason Shachat and J. Todd Swarthout
Managing Project Failure Risk Through Contingent Contracts in Procurement Auctions pp. 23-39: Jianqing Chen, Lizhen Xu and Andrew Whinston
Pricing Rule in a Clock Auction pp. 40-57: Peter Cramton and Pacharasut Sujarittanonta
A Practical Combinatorial Clock Exchange for Spectrum Licenses pp. 58-77: Karla Hoffman and Dinesh Menon
Auctioning the Right to Choose When Competition Persists pp. 78-85: Ronald Harstad
Common Value vs. Private Value Categories in Online Auctions: A Distinction Without a Difference? pp. 86-98: Peter Boatwright, Sharad Borle and Joseph B. Kadane
The Impact of Online Auction Duration pp. 99-106: Ernan Haruvy and Peter Popkowski Leszczyc
Optimal Static Hedging of Volumetric Risk in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market pp. 107-122: Yumi Oum and Shmuel S. Oren
Measuring Risk Aversion in a Name-Your-Own-Price Channel pp. 123-136: Ali E. Abbas and Il-Horn Hann
Information Variability Impacts in Auctions pp. 137-142: Justin Jia, Ronald Harstad and Michael H. Rothkopf