Decision Analysis

2004 - 2026

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Volume 10, issue 4, 2013

From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security pp. 277-278

Rakesh K. Sarin

Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions pp. 279-291

Stephen C. Hora, Benjamin R. Fransen, Natasha Hawkins and Irving Susel

Choosing a Strictly Proper Scoring Rule pp. 292-304

Edgar C. Merkle and Mark Steyvers

Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts pp. 305-326

Christopher W. Karvetski, Kenneth C. Olson, David R. Mandel and Charles R. Twardy

Why Do Simple Heuristics Perform Well in Choices with Binary Attributes? pp. 327-340

Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

The Value of Information in Portfolio Problems with Dependent Projects pp. 341-351

Debarun Bhattacharjya, Jo Eidsvik and Tapan Mukerji

Information Security Investment When Hackers Disseminate Knowledge pp. 352-368

Xing Gao, Weijun Zhong and Shue Mei

Volume 10, issue 3, 2013

From the Editor —Optimal Betting, Reducing Unnecessary Mammography in Breast Cancer Diagnosis, Product Line Design, and Value of Information pp. 187-188

Rakesh K. Sarin

Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion pp. 189-199

Rose D. Baker and Ian G. McHale

Optimal Policies for Reducing Unnecessary Follow-Up Mammography Exams in Breast Cancer Diagnosis pp. 200-224

Oguzhan Alagoz, Jagpreet Chhatwal and Elizabeth S. Burnside

Product Line Design with Deliberation Costs: A Two-Stage Process pp. 225-244

Hui Xiong and Ying-Ju Chen

Decreasing Marginal Value of Information Under Symmetric Loss pp. 245-256

Sushil Bikhchandani and John W. Mamer

Effects of Risk Aversion on the Value of Information in Two-Action Decision Problems pp. 257-275

Ali E. Abbas, N. Onur Bakır, Georgia-Ann Klutke and Zhengwei Sun

Volume 10, issue 2, 2013

From the Editors ---Group Decisions, Preference Elicitation, Experienced Utility, Survival Probabilities, and Portfolio Value of Information pp. 99-102

Rakesh K. Sarin and L. Robin Keller

Foundations for Group Decision Analysis pp. 103-120

Ralph L. Keeney

Toward an Improved Methodology to Construct and Reconcile Decision Analytic Preference Judgments pp. 121-134

Richard M. Anderson and Robert Clemen

Determinants of Experienced Utility: Laws and Implications pp. 135-151

Manel Baucells and Rakesh K. Sarin

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data pp. 152-170

Peter Hudomiet and Robert J. Willis

Components of Portfolio Value of Information pp. 171-185

Kun Zan and J. Eric Bickel

Volume 10, issue 1, 2013

From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback pp. 1-5

Rakesh K. Sarin and L. Robin Keller

Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions pp. 6-25

Robert K. Hammond and J. Eric Bickel

Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information pp. 26-41

Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel

Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity pp. 42-62

Kevin S. Ni, Daniel Faissol, Thomas Edmunds and Richard Wheeler

Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers pp. 63-81

Huseyin Cavusoglu, Young Kwark, Bin Mai and Srinivasan Raghunathan

WholeSoldier Performance Appraisal to Support Mentoring and Personnel Decisions pp. 82-97

Robert A. Dees, Scott T. Nestler and Robert Kewley

Volume 9, issue 4, 2012

From the Editors ---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus pp. 297-302

L. Robin Keller, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, Vicki M. Bier, David V. Budescu, John C. Butler, Enrico Diecidue, Robin L. Dillon-Merrill, Raimo P. Hämäläinen, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jason R. W. Merrick, Jay R. Simon and George Wu

Value-Focused Brainstorming pp. 303-313

Ralph L. Keeney

Multiplicative Utilities for Health and Consumption pp. 314-328

Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Samuel E. Bodily

A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information pp. 329-347

Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel

Decision Trees with Single and Multiple Interval-Valued Objectives pp. 348-358

Kash Barker and Kaycee J. Wilson

Explaining Risk Attitude in Framing Tasks by Regulatory Focus: A Verbal Protocol Analysis and a Simulation Using Fuzzy Logic pp. 359-372

Anton Kühberger and Christian Wiener

Volume 9, issue 3, 2012

From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics pp. 213-218

L. Robin Keller and Kelly M. Kophazi

Conditionalization of Copula-Based Models pp. 219-230

Dorota Kurowicka

A Note on a Group Preference Axiomatization with Cardinal Utility pp. 231-237

Luis Dias and Paula Sarabando

Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing with the Team Effect pp. 238-252

Andrew Samuel and Seth D. Guikema

Sharing Rewards Among Strangers Based on Peer Evaluations pp. 253-273

Arthur Carvalho and Kate Larson

Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants pp. 274-292

Jeffrey M. Keisler and Patrick S. Noonan

Volume 9, issue 2, 2012

From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk pp. 81-85

Jason R. W. Merrick, Fabrizio Ruggeri, Refik Soyer and L. Robin Keller

Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case pp. 86-95

Juan Carlos Sevillano, David Rios Insua and Jesus Rios

Risk Measures from Risk-Reducing Experiments pp. 96-102

Philippe Delquié

Interactions Between Ageing and Risk Properties in the Analysis of Burn-in Problems pp. 103-118

Rachele Foschi and Fabio Spizzichino

Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis pp. 119-127

Simon French

From Reliability Block Diagrams to Fault Tree Circuits pp. 128-137

Debarun Bhattacharjya and Léa A. Deleris

Formulating Asymmetric Decision Problems as Decision Circuits pp. 138-145

Debarun Bhattacharjya and Ross D. Shachter

Game Theoretical Approach for Reliable Enhanced Indexation pp. 146-155

Miguel Lejeune

Regulation Games Between Government and Competing Companies: Oil Spills and Other Disasters pp. 156-164

May Cheung and Jun Zhuang

Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example pp. 165-171

Jim Q. Smith and Lorraine Dodd

Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents pp. 172-185

Sumitra Sri Bhashyam and Gilberto Montibeller

Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations pp. 186-203

M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Volume 9, issue 1, 2012

From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams pp. 1-5

L. Robin Keller

Exploding Offers pp. 6-21

Steven A. Lippman and John W. Mamer

Dynamic Purchase Decisions Under Regret: Price and Availability pp. 22-30

Enrico Diecidue, Nils Rudi and Wenjie Tang

Embedded Nash Bargaining: Risk Aversion and Impatience pp. 31-40

Steven A. Lippman and Kevin F. McCardle

Robust Adversarial Risk Analysis: A Level- k Approach pp. 41-54

Laura McLay, Casey Rothschild and Seth Guikema

A Framework for Solving Hybrid Influence Diagrams Containing Deterministic Conditional Distributions pp. 55-75

Yijing Li and Prakash P. Shenoy