Decision Analysis

2004 - 2025

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Volume 13, issue 4, 2016

An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules pp. 223-242

Arthur Carvalho

The Metalog Distributions pp. 243-277

Thomas W. Keelin

Can Novices Create Alternatives of the Same Quality as Experts? pp. 278-291

Johannes Siebert

Volume 13, issue 3, 2016

Long-Term Care Insurance Decisions pp. 173-191

Samuel E. Bodily and Bryan Furman

Equilibrium Notions for Agents with Cumulative Prospect Theory Preferences pp. 192-208

Kerim Keskin

On the Positive Expected Utility of Combination Wagers pp. 209-212

Babatunde Buraimo, David Peel and Rob Simmons

Remembering Howard Raiffa pp. 213-218

Ralph L. Keeney

The Legacy of Howard Raiffa pp. 219-220

David Bell

Volume 13, issue 2, 2016

Reducing Risk and Improving Incentives in Funding Entrepreneurs pp. 101-116

Samuel E. Bodily

Using Means Objectives to Present Risk Information pp. 117-127

Candice H. Huynh and Jay Simon

Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses pp. 128-152

Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers and Philip E. Tetlock

Goals as Reference Points: Empirical Evidence from a Virtual Reward System pp. 153-171

Tobias von Rechenberg, Dominik Gutt and Dennis Kundisch

Volume 13, issue 1, 2016

Probabilistic Warnings in National Security Crises: Pearl Harbor Revisited pp. 1-25

David M. Blum and M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Its Followers pp. 26-50

Johannes Siebert, Detlof von Winterfeldt and Richard S. John

Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction pp. 51-67

Venkata R. Prava, Robert T. Clemen, Benjamin F. Hobbs and Melissa A. Kenney

Sequential Shortest Path Interdiction with Incomplete Information pp. 68-98

Juan S. Borrero, Oleg A. Prokopyev and Denis Sauré

Volume 12, issue 4, 2015

“Gaming the System”: Decision Making by Interdependent Critical Infrastructure pp. 155-172

Allison C. Reilly, Andrew Samuel and Seth D. Guikema

Modeling Public–Private Partnerships in Disaster Management via Centralized and Decentralized Models pp. 173-189

Peiqiu Guan and Jun Zhuang

Equal Tails: A Simple Method to Elicit Utility Under Violations of Expected Utility pp. 190-204

Manel Baucells and Antonio Villasís

Theory of Generalized Risk Attitudes pp. 205-227

Janne Gustafsson

Volume 12, issue 3, 2015

Search Before Trade-offs Are Known pp. 105-121

Otso Massala and Ilia Tsetlin

Use of Insurance Against a Small Loss as an Incentive Strategy pp. 122-129

Daniella Meeker, Christin Thompson, Greg Strylewicz, Tara K. Knight and Jason Doctor

The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds pp. 130-143

Clintin P. Davis-Stober, David V. Budescu, Stephen B. Broomell and Jason Dana

The Impact of Learning by Thought on Violations of Independence and Coalescing pp. 144-152

Michael H. Birnbaum and Ulrich Schmidt

Volume 12, issue 2, 2015

Possibility Engineering pp. 61-73

James C. Felli

Weighted Almost Stochastic Dominance: Revealing the Preferences of Most Decision Makers in the St. Petersburg Paradox pp. 74-80

Chin Hon Tan

Air Force Cyberspace Investment Analysis pp. 81-95

Gregory S. Parnell, Rudolph E. Butler, Stephen J. Wichmann, Mike Tedeschi and David Merritt

An Empirical Examination of Multiple Objective Risk Attitudes pp. 96-103

William K. Klimack, Jack M. Kloeber, Kenneth W. Bauer and Mark E. Oxley

Volume 12, issue 1, 2015

Nonconvex Equilibrium Prices in Prediction Markets pp. 1-14

Ashwin K. Seshadri

Project Management Decisions with Uncertain Targets pp. 15-28

Jeffrey M. Keisler and Robert F. Bordley

Collaborative Decision Making pp. 29-45

Daniel Owen

Deciding on the Decision Situation to Analyze: The Critical First Step of a Decision Analysis pp. 46-58

Roberto Ley-Borrás

Volume 11, issue 4, 2014

Multiattribute Procurement Auctions: Efficiency and Social Welfare in Theory and Practice pp. 215-232

Gregory E. Kersten

Decomposing a Utility Function Based on Discrete Distribution Independence pp. 233-249

Ying He, James S. Dyer and John C. Butler

Augmented Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation for Two-Stage Stochastic Programs with Recourse pp. 250-264

Tahir Ekin, Nicholas G. Polson and Refik Soyer

Pancreatic Cancer: Insights from Counterterrorism Theories pp. 265-276

Mary F. McGuire

Volume 11, issue 3, 2014

A Generalized Sampling Approach for Multilinear Utility Functions Given Partial Preference Information pp. 147-170

Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel

Exploding Offers Can Blow Up in More Than One Way pp. 171-188

Nelson Lau, Yakov Bart, J. Neil Bearden and Ilia Tsetlin

The Value of Information in Some Variations of the Stopping Problem pp. 189-203

Debarun Bhattacharjya and Léa A. Deleris

Reducing Interval-Valued Decision Trees to Conventional Ones: Comments on Decision Trees with Single and Multiple Interval-Valued Objectives pp. 204-212

Yongzhi Cao

Volume 11, issue 2, 2014

Scale Dependence and Ranking Intervals in Additive Value Models Under Incomplete Preference Information pp. 83-104

Antti Punkka and Ahti Salo

Decision Performance and Safety Performance: A Value-Focused Thinking Study in the Oil Industry pp. 105-116

Jason R. W. Merrick and Martha Grabowski

A Value-Focused Approach to Energy Transformation in the United States Department of Defense pp. 117-132

Jay Simon, Eva Regnier and Laura Whitney

Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme pp. 133-145

Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone and Lyle H. Ungar

Volume 11, issue 1, 2014

Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions for Portfolio Decision Analysis pp. 1-20

Juuso Liesiö

Augmenting Ordinal Methods of Attribute Weight Approximation pp. 21-26

Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg and Ying He

Evolving Risk Perceptions About Near-Miss Terrorist Events pp. 27-42

Robin L. Dillon, Catherine H. Tinsley and William J. Burns

Modeling Credible Retaliation Threats in Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons Using Partial Inspection---A Three-Stage Game pp. 43-62

Xiaojun (Gene) Shan and Jun Zhuang

Improving the Value of Analysis for Biosurveillance pp. 63-81

Henry H. Willis and Melinda Moore

Volume 10, issue 4, 2013

From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security pp. 277-278

Rakesh K. Sarin

Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions pp. 279-291

Stephen C. Hora, Benjamin R. Fransen, Natasha Hawkins and Irving Susel

Choosing a Strictly Proper Scoring Rule pp. 292-304

Edgar C. Merkle and Mark Steyvers

Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts pp. 305-326

Christopher W. Karvetski, Kenneth C. Olson, David R. Mandel and Charles R. Twardy

Why Do Simple Heuristics Perform Well in Choices with Binary Attributes? pp. 327-340

Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

The Value of Information in Portfolio Problems with Dependent Projects pp. 341-351

Debarun Bhattacharjya, Jo Eidsvik and Tapan Mukerji

Information Security Investment When Hackers Disseminate Knowledge pp. 352-368

Xing Gao, Weijun Zhong and Shue Mei

Volume 10, issue 3, 2013

From the Editor —Optimal Betting, Reducing Unnecessary Mammography in Breast Cancer Diagnosis, Product Line Design, and Value of Information pp. 187-188

Rakesh K. Sarin

Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion pp. 189-199

Rose D. Baker and Ian G. McHale

Optimal Policies for Reducing Unnecessary Follow-Up Mammography Exams in Breast Cancer Diagnosis pp. 200-224

Oguzhan Alagoz, Jagpreet Chhatwal and Elizabeth S. Burnside

Product Line Design with Deliberation Costs: A Two-Stage Process pp. 225-244

Hui Xiong and Ying-Ju Chen

Decreasing Marginal Value of Information Under Symmetric Loss pp. 245-256

Sushil Bikhchandani and John W. Mamer

Effects of Risk Aversion on the Value of Information in Two-Action Decision Problems pp. 257-275

Ali E. Abbas, N. Onur Bakır, Georgia-Ann Klutke and Zhengwei Sun

Volume 10, issue 2, 2013

From the Editors ---Group Decisions, Preference Elicitation, Experienced Utility, Survival Probabilities, and Portfolio Value of Information pp. 99-102

Rakesh K. Sarin and L. Robin Keller

Foundations for Group Decision Analysis pp. 103-120

Ralph L. Keeney

Toward an Improved Methodology to Construct and Reconcile Decision Analytic Preference Judgments pp. 121-134

Richard M. Anderson and Robert Clemen

Determinants of Experienced Utility: Laws and Implications pp. 135-151

Manel Baucells and Rakesh K. Sarin

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data pp. 152-170

Peter Hudomiet and Robert J. Willis

Components of Portfolio Value of Information pp. 171-185

Kun Zan and J. Eric Bickel

Volume 10, issue 1, 2013

From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback pp. 1-5

Rakesh K. Sarin and L. Robin Keller

Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions pp. 6-25

Robert K. Hammond and J. Eric Bickel

Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information pp. 26-41

Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel

Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity pp. 42-62

Kevin S. Ni, Daniel Faissol, Thomas Edmunds and Richard Wheeler

Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers pp. 63-81

Huseyin Cavusoglu, Young Kwark, Bin Mai and Srinivasan Raghunathan

WholeSoldier Performance Appraisal to Support Mentoring and Personnel Decisions pp. 82-97

Robert A. Dees, Scott T. Nestler and Robert Kewley