Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education

J. Eric Bickel ()
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J. Eric Bickel: Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712

Decision Analysis, 2010, vol. 7, issue 4, 346-357

Abstract: Experiential learning is perhaps the most effective way to teach. One example is the scoring procedure used for exams in some decision analysis programs. Under this grading scheme, students take a multiple-choice exam, but rather than simply marking which answer they think is correct, they must assign a probability to each possible answer. The exam is then scored with a special scoring rule, under which students' best strategy is to avoid guessing and instead assign their true beliefs. Such a scoring function is known as a strictly proper scoring rule. In this paper, we discuss several different scoring rules and demonstrate how their use in testing situations provides insights for both students and instructors.

Keywords: scoring rules; education; probability assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:7:y:2010:i:4:p:346-357

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