Improving the Performance Stability of Inductive Expert Systems Under Input Noise

Vijay S. Mookerjee, Michael V. Mannino and Robert Gilson
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Vijay S. Mookerjee: Department of Management Science, School of Business Administration, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-3200
Michael V. Mannino: Department of Management Science, School of Business Administration, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-3200
Robert Gilson: Department of Management Science, School of Business Administration, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-3200

Information Systems Research, 1995, vol. 6, issue 4, 328-356

Abstract: Inductive expert systems typically operate with imperfect or noisy input attributes. We study design differences in inductive expert systems arising from implicit versus explicit handling of input noise. Most previous approaches use an implicit approach wherein inductive expert systems are constructed using input data of quality comparable to problems the system will be called upon to solve. We develop an explicit algorithm (ID3 ecp ) that uses a clean (without input errors) training set and an explicit measure of the input noise level and compare it to a traditional implicit algorithm, ID3 p (the ID3 algorithm with the pessimistic pruning procedure). The novel feature of the explicit algorithm is that it injects noise in a controlled rather than random manner in order to reduce the performance variance due to noise. We show analytically that the implicit algorithm has the same expected partitioning behavior as the explicit algorithm. In contrast, however, the partitioning behavior of the explicit algorithm is shown to be more stable (i.e., lower variance) than the implicit algorithm. To extend the analysis to the predictive performance of the algorithms, a set of simulation experiments is described in which the average performance and coefficient of variation of performance of both algorithms are studied on real and artificial data sets. The experimental results confirm the analytical results and demonstrate substantial differences in stability of performance between the algorithms especially as the noise level increases.

Keywords: inductive expert systems; input data noise; performance stability; variance reduction; controlled scrambling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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