Evaluating the Impact of Advertising Media Plans: A Model of Consumer Purchase Dynamics Using Single-Source Data

James H. Pedrick and Fred S. Zufryden
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James H. Pedrick: University of Southern California
Fred S. Zufryden: University of Southern California

Marketing Science, 1991, vol. 10, issue 2, 111-130

Abstract: We propose a model to analyze the impact of advertising media plans and point-of-purchase marketing variables on a brand's market performance. Our model integrates brand choice, purchase incidence, and exposure behavior within a nonstationary stochastic framework. Moreover, it considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in loyalty levels, purchase rates, and exposure probabilities for a population of consumers. The integrated model provides a relationship of advertising exposures from media plans, and other marketing variables, to measures of a brand's performance that include market share, penetration and depth of repeat patterns over time. In this paper, we focus on a multi-brand model formulation and stress its application to the analysis of advertising media plans. Based on single-source UPC scanner panel data for a frequently purchased product category, we provide an empirical test of the model. In this context, our analyses show that the model provides a good fit to the empirical data as well as accurate forecasts in hold-out predictive tests.

Keywords: advertising reach/frequency; logit choice model; stochastic purchase incidence; consumer heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:10:y:1991:i:2:p:111-130

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