Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings

William J. Infosino
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William J. Infosino: AT&T Bell Laboratories

Marketing Science, 1986, vol. 5, issue 4, 372-384

Abstract: This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey a few weeks before the product was introduced. The analysis leads to a model for forecasting new product sales. The model is supported by both empirical evidence and a reasonable theoretical foundation. In addition to calibrating the relationship between questionnaire ratings and actual purchases, the empirical evidence demonstrates the significant effect of alternative promotion/distribution vehicles on new product sales. The model uses questionnaire data to extend the results of a limited market trial to alternative target markets, product specifications, and prices.

Keywords: purchase intentions; demand forecasting; questionnaires; calibration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1986
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:4:p:372-384

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