Some Factors Involved in Determining Total Decision Success

Samuel G. Trull
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Samuel G. Trull: University of California, Berkeley

Management Science, 1966, vol. 12, issue 6, B270-B280

Abstract: Currently there is a trend toward attempting to understand the mechanics involved in heuristic decisions, or decisions where the lack of a measure or index of effectiveness, coupled with a surfeit of alternatives and an absence of reliable probabilities associated with decision variables, leads to an open or non-computable decision process. In an attempt to obtain more information about successful decision-making processes, an investigation was made of 100 case examples drawn from five general areas: (1) Industrial (sales, personnel, production, and financial), (2) Military, (3) Medical, (4) Political, and (5) Commercial. Examination of the cases showed that although the decision process was not explicit, a certain clustering of key variables appeared as a common feature of the decision-reaching process. These variables seemed to influence the success of the decision in a causal fashion. This was particularly in evidence when these clusters were analyzed in the broader framework of their impact upon the total system and effect upon decision success. One cluster of variables was found to surround the quality of the decision itself. These included Compatibility with Existing Operating Constraints, Nearness to Optimum Time for Decision related to Proximity to Optimum Amount of Infornaation, and the Problem Solver's Infiuence on the Decision. The second major factor, implementation of the decision, was affected by Avoidance of Confiict of Interests, Reward-Risk Factors, and the Degree of Understanding Achieved. Total decision success was found to be achieved through the effective usage of the variables of decision quality enforced through skillful management of the variables of implementation. E.g., total decision success equals decision quality plus implementation. Within the 100 cases taken under study, there are several areas that are common to the decision-reaching process in general. By identifying what seem to be the critical stages and elements in decision-reaching, the process itself becomes more amenable to a complete and systematic analysis. Decision-reaching, varying from traditional decision-making, is subjective by nature and includes a high degree of uncertainty. It involves a unique program for the decision process with little or no duplication and with interrelated variables of shifting weight functions. The result is obtained through successive interacting steps which, when completed, allow the ultimate determination. The term--decision-reaching rather than word coinage, should be useful in the delineation of a specific process, setting aside a specific area for future research.

Date: 1966
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