On the Expected Duration of PERT Type Networks

Salah E. Elmaghraby
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Salah E. Elmaghraby: Yale University

Management Science, 1967, vol. 13, issue 5, 299-306

Abstract: In PERT-type networks, where activity times are random variables, the expected duration of the total project can be approximated by first substituting the expected values of the individual activities, and then evaluating the length of the critical path. This paper develops two improved estimates. Both estimates approach the true expected duration from below, i.e., they are both optimistic estimates.

Date: 1967
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