Automating Judgmental Decision Making for a Serious Medical Problem

Norman E. Betaque and G. Anthony Gorry
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Norman E. Betaque: Currently with U.S. Army, Viet Nam
G. Anthony Gorry: Sloan School of Management, M.I.T

Management Science, 1971, vol. 17, issue 8, B421-B434

Abstract: A decision theory model of the diagnosis and treatment of a serious medical condition, acute renal failure, has been implemented as part of a study of automated judgmental decision-making. An interactive diagnostic computer program was used to test the model. This program employs formal decision procedures and the subjective assessment of likelihoods and preferences of experts to analyze the diagnostic/treatment problem. The program's success in duplicating the decisions of expert clinicians in about 90 per cent of the cases used indicates that the method of analysis is not only a convenient structure for theoretically describing diagnosis and treatment, but that it is potentially a practical way of analyzing such decision problems.

Date: 1971
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