Estimating the Mean and Variance of Subjective Distributions in PERT and Decision Analysis

C. Perry and I. D. Greig
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C. Perry: The University of New England, New South Wales
I. D. Greig: The University of New England, New South Wales

Management Science, 1975, vol. 21, issue 12, 1477-1480

Abstract: The original PERT formulae [5] employ the mode and endpoints to estimate the mean and standard deviation of subjective probability distributions. Though widely-used, they have met with criticism for their inaccuracy, and for their being limited to the beta distribution when there is no a priori reason why the distribution should be beta ([4], [6]). This note presents alternative, accurate and relatively distribution-free formulae for estimating the means and standard deviations of subjective probability distributions.

Date: 1975
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