A Diverting Structure's Effects on a River Flow Time Series

Darryl J. Downing, David J. Pack and Gary W. Westley
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Darryl J. Downing: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operated by Union Carbide Corporation under contract W-7405-eng-26 with the U.S. Department of Energy
David J. Pack: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operated by Union Carbide Corporation under contract W-7405-eng-26 with the U.S. Department of Energy
Gary W. Westley: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operated by Union Carbide Corporation under contract W-7405-eng-26 with the U.S. Department of Energy

Management Science, 1983, vol. 29, issue 2, 225-236

Abstract: A step-by-step summary of an empirical time series analysis of the effects of a newly constructed dam on river flow rate is given. A model of river flow rate for the 522 weeks of data is built through the transfer function/intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins/Box-Tiao. Analysis indicates a rainfall variable has a significant influence on the pre-dam flow rate but not on the post-dam flow rate. The model also reflects a differing relationship of rainfall to pre-dam flow rate depending on the season of the year. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of implied mean flow rates suggest that the final model provides a sound basis for some public policy decisions that might focus on the dam.

Keywords: forecasting: time series; water resources; facilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1983
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:2:p:225-236

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