Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming

Cornelis A. De Kluyver and Herbert Moskowitz
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Cornelis A. De Kluyver: University of Virginia
Herbert Moskowitz: Purdue University

Management Science, 1984, vol. 30, issue 3, 273-278

Abstract: An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.

Keywords: probability assessment; interactive goal programming; scenario analysis; decision theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1984
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:30:y:1984:i:3:p:273-278

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