Forecasting Trends in Time Series

Everette S. Gardner, Jr. and Ed. Mckenzie
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Everette S. Gardner, Jr.: Operations Analysis Department, Navy Fleet Material Support Office, P.O. Box 2010, Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania 17055
Ed. Mckenzie: Mathematics Department, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XW, Scotland, United Kingdom

Management Science, 1985, vol. 31, issue 10, 1237-1246

Abstract: Most time series methods assume that any trend will continue unabated, regardless of the forecast lead time. But recent empirical findings suggest that forecast accuracy can be improved by either damping or ignoring altogether trends which have a low probability of persistence. This paper develops an exponential smoothing model designed to damp erratic trends. The model is tested using the sample of 1,001 time series first analyzed by Makridakis et al. Compared to smoothing models based on a linear trend, the model improves forecast accuracy, particularly at long leadtimes. The model also compares favorably to sophisticated time series models noted for good long-range performance, such as those of Lewandowski and Parzen.

Keywords: forecasting:; time; series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1985
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (95)

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