An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Forecasting Combinations

Thomas D. Russell and Everett E. Adam, Jr.
Additional contact information
Thomas D. Russell: Burlington Northern Motor Carriers Inc., Fort Worth, Texas 76102
Everett E. Adam, Jr.: College of Business and Public Administration, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211

Management Science, 1987, vol. 33, issue 10, 1267-1276

Abstract: Combining naive forecasting models as an alternative to using any one model has shown promise for improving forecasting accuracy at reasonable additional cost. This study extends previous combination modeling by selectively including models in combination rather than using all individual models in a set, evaluating six new model combinations and comparing them to three previously investigated model combinations, investigating the impact of forecasting time horizon, and investigating alternative error measures to mean square error (MSE). Results support using a model-combination that (1) selects the best 3 to 5 models from the 10 models studied and (2) weights the selected models based upon the inverse proportion of their individual accuracy as measured by MSE.

Keywords: forecasting: naive models; forecasting: combination modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.10.1267 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:10:p:1267-1276

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Management Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().