A Semi-Markov Model for Primary Health Care Manpower Supply Prediction

Vandan Trivedi, Ira Moscovice, Richard Bass and John Brooks
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Vandan Trivedi: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195
Ira Moscovice: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195
Richard Bass: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195
John Brooks: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195

Management Science, 1987, vol. 33, issue 2, 149-160

Abstract: In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, legislators, and regulators, for objective decision making.

Keywords: health care planning; semi-Markov models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:2:p:149-160

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