A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events

Donald Rosenfield
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Donald Rosenfield: Arthur D. Little, Inc., Acorn Park, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140-2390 and Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Management Science, 1987, vol. 33, issue 8, 947-954

Abstract: This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique bases future occurrences on an estimation procedure based on historical data. The estimation procedure incorporates two types of uncertainty: population variation and individual propensity to change. An example is presented.

Keywords: risk; probability; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:8:p:947-954

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