A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products

John A. Norton and Frank M. Bass
Additional contact information
John A. Norton: Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, The University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22906-6550
Frank M. Bass: School of Management, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas

Management Science, 1987, vol. 33, issue 9, 1069-1086

Abstract: This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(January) 215--227.) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

Keywords: marketing; new products (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (189)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.9.1069 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:9:p:1069-1086

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Management Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().