A Comparison of Two Elicitation Methods for a Prior Distribution for a Binomial Parameter

Umesh Gavasakar
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Umesh Gavasakar: Formerly at the University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point

Management Science, 1988, vol. 34, issue 6, 784-790

Abstract: This paper compares two methods of elicitation for the hyperparameters of the conjugate beta distribution for a binomial sampling model. The PM (posterior mode) method of Chaloner and Duncan appears to be more sensitive to elicitation errors than does a new method proposed here. This new method uses the device of imaginary results, due to I. J. Good (Good, I. J. 1967. A Bayesian significance test for multinomial distributions. JRSSB 29 399--431 (with discussion).). An explicit model for elicitation errors is used in a simulation.

Keywords: elicitation; imaginary results; beta prior distribution; binomial sampling distribution; PM method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1988
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:34:y:1988:i:6:p:784-790

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