Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler
Additional contact information
Robert T. Clemen: College of Business Administration, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403
Robert L. Winkler: Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706

Management Science, 1990, vol. 36, issue 7, 767-779

Abstract: When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to their conformance (or lack thereof) to the unanimity principle and a more general compromise principle. In an analysis of a large set of probability forecast data from meteorology, we show how well the various models, when fit to the data, reflect the empirical pattern of conformance to these principles.

Keywords: combining probabilities; consensus; unanimity; weather forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1990
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:36:y:1990:i:7:p:767-779

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Management Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().