Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager

Robert C. Blattberg and Stephen J. Hoch
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Robert C. Blattberg: University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637
Stephen J. Hoch: University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637

Management Science, 1990, vol. 36, issue 8, 887-899

Abstract: We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R 2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.

Keywords: forecasting; decision making; expertise; decision support systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1990
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