Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis

Derek Bunn and George Wright
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Derek Bunn: London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA England
George Wright: Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow G4 OGE, United Kingdom

Management Science, 1991, vol. 37, issue 5, 501-518

Abstract: This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have previously asserted, and circumstances favourable to this are identified. The issue of the interaction of judgemental and statistical methods is, however, identified as a more worthwhile line of inquiry, and research in this area is reviewed, differentiating approaches aimed at synthesising both of these inputs.

Keywords: judgemental forecasting; quality of judgement; combination of forecasts; bootstrapping; calibration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:37:y:1991:i:5:p:501-518

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