A Methodology for Evaluating Military Systems in a Counterproliferation Role

Stanley Stafira, Jr., Gregory S. Parnell and James T. Moore
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Stanley Stafira, Jr.: AFSAA/SASG, Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency, 1570 Air Force Pentagon, Washington, DC 20330-1570
Gregory S. Parnell: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University, Oliver Hall, 1015 West Main Street, Richmond, Virginia 23284-2014
James T. Moore: Air Force Institute of Technology, AFIT/ENS 2950 P Street, Wriglit-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433-7765

Management Science, 1997, vol. 43, issue 10, 1420-1430

Abstract: This paper illustrates a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States' counterproliferation objectives. The key questions in evaluating counterproliferation systems are identified. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed that represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. A value model is developed that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. An analysis of intelligence, defensive, and offensive counterproliferation systems suggests that intelligence system improvements may provide the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation objectives. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which factors in the model are most important. To demonstrate the model, nine systems from the Air Force Vulcan's Forge 1995 wargame are evaluated. This paper illustrates the value of decision analysis, and influence diagrams in particular, by involving decision makers and subject matter experts in structuring complex problems for analysis.

Keywords: decision analysis; arms control; defense analysis; public policy analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:43:y:1997:i:10:p:1420-1430

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