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Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces

Gregory S. Parnell, Harry W. Conley, Jack A. Jackson, Lee J. Lehmkuhl and John M. Andrew
Additional contact information
Gregory S. Parnell: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia 23284-2014 & Toffler Associates
Harry W. Conley: Joint Simulation System Program Office, Orlando, Florida 32826
Jack A. Jackson: AFIT/ENS, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433-7765
Lee J. Lehmkuhl: Assistant Professor of Mathematical Sciences, HQ USAFA/DFMS, United States Air Force Academy Colorado 80840-6252
John M. Andrew: Air Force Agency for Modeling and Simulation, Orlando, Florida 32826-3276

Management Science, 1998, vol. 44, issue 10, 1336-1350

Abstract: Air Force 2025 was a study directed by the Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force to identify key system concepts and technologies for achieving air and space dominance in the year 2025. The study was a large effort in which over 200 military experts participated for more than one year. We developed a Value-Focused Thinking model, which we used to evaluate which futuristic system concepts have the greatest potential to ensure future U.S. air and space dominance. We named the value model Foundations 2025 because it represented a return to the basics of air and space dominance. We used the "silver standard" approach for value hierarchy development. The participants identified key verbs to describe tasks that must be performed in 2025 to ensure air and space dominance. The value hierarchy was developed bottom-up by aggregating these verbs into higher order tasks using affinity diagrams. Using the value hierarchy, we used multiattribute decision analysis techniques to develop an additive value model with 134 attributes. The Foundations 2025 value model was successfully used to score 43 futuristic system concepts and provide insights about the most promising system concepts and technologies. The analysis results directly supported the study director and the senior leadership of the United States Air Force.

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Value-Focused Thinking; Multiattribute Decision Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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