Long-Run Abstinence After Narcotics Abuse: What Are the Odds?

Marnik G. Dekimpe, Linda M. Van de Gucht, Dominique M. Hanssens and Keiko I. Powers
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Marnik G. Dekimpe: Catholic University Lauven, Naamestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Linda M. Van de Gucht: Catholic University Lauven, Naamestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Dominique M. Hanssens: The Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481
Keiko I. Powers: The Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481

Management Science, 1998, vol. 44, issue 11-Part-1, 1478-1492

Abstract: We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.

Keywords: Hazard Modeling; Survival Analysis; Narcotics Abuse; Methadone Treatment; Public Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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