Note: Rule-Based Forecasting vs. Damped-Trend Exponential Smoothing

Everette S. Gardner
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Everette S. Gardner: Center for Global Manufacturing, College of Business Administration, University of Houston, Houston, Texas 77204-6282

Management Science, 1999, vol. 45, issue 8, 1169-1176

Abstract: This paper evaluates the ex ante performance of rule-based time series forecasting systems proposed in earlier research. The author shows that comparable performance can be obtained with a simpler alternative, a damped-trend version of exponential smoothing fitted to minimize the Mean-Absolute-Deviation (MAD) criterion. The results suggest that the performance of rule-based systems would be improved through this alternative and that time series forecasters should consider MAD fits in model development.

Keywords: combining forecasts; exponential smoothing; extrapolation; expert systems; judgment; rule-based forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:45:y:1999:i:8:p:1169-1176

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