A General Multiple Distributed Lag Framework for Estimating the Dynamic Effects of Promotions

Eelco Kappe (), Ashley Stadler Blank () and Wayne S. DeSarbo ()
Additional contact information
Eelco Kappe: Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802
Ashley Stadler Blank: Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802
Wayne S. DeSarbo: Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802

Management Science, 2014, vol. 60, issue 6, 1489-1510

Abstract: Game attendance resulting from ticket sales is the single largest revenue stream for Major League Baseball (MLB) teams. We propose a general multiple distributed lag framework following the Koyck family of models for estimating MLB attendance drivers and focus specifically on the differential direct and carryover effects of in-game promotions. By setting various model constraints, the proposed framework incorporates different forms of serial correlation and promotion-specific dynamic effects. Using information model-selection heuristics, we select an optimal model of attendance drivers for the Pittsburgh Pirates' 2010--2012 MLB seasons. We demonstrate that our newly proposed model with an unrestricted serial correlation structure performs best. We find that although kids promotions have the highest direct effect on attendance, giveaway and entertainment promotions have substantial carryover effects and the largest total effects. We use our results to optimize the Pirates' promotional schedule and find that a reallocation of resources across promotional categories can increase profits between 39% and 88%.Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1856 . This paper was accepted by Eric Bradlow, special issue on business analytics .

Keywords: distributed lag models; dynamic effects; econometric models; Major League Baseball; promotions; sports marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1856 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:60:y:2014:i:6:p:1489-1510

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Management Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().