A Procedure for Revising Data-Based Priors in a Group

Shiri Alon () and Gabrielle Gayer ()
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Shiri Alon: Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan 5290002, Israel
Gabrielle Gayer: Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan 5290002, Israel

Management Science, 2025, vol. 71, issue 2, 1737-1755

Abstract: A group of individuals is interested in predicting the outcome of a current problem. Each individual has access to private data that are used to form a prior probability over possible outcomes. While individuals may be reluctant or unable to disclose their private data, they are willing to publish their priors. We characterize a procedure for revising the individuals’ prior probabilities based on the published priors of others and discuss its implications regarding the formation of a common prior in the group, both in the short and long run.

Keywords: case-based; similarity-weighted frequency; revising priors; common prior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:71:y:2025:i:2:p:1737-1755

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