Some Weapon System Survival Probability Models---I. Fixed Time Between Firings

Joseph J. Schoderbek
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Joseph J. Schoderbek: Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Palo Alto, California

Operations Research, 1962, vol. 10, issue 2, 155-167

Abstract: The various survival probability models considered in this series of two papers can be reduced to basically two types depending on whether the time between firings is fixed or random. In Part I several deterministic models for estimating weapon system survival probability are considered. These are introduced by way of problems of increasing complexity, the first being concerned with the simple problem of determining the probability that a weapon system engaged in a duel with another will survive a specified length of time. The time between firings is assumed to be the same for both sides and the friendly force is assumed to have fired first. In the second problem, the former assumption is removed. Problem 3 introduces the concept of evacuation and illustrates the effect evacuation capability has on probability of survival. Problem 4 is a natural extension of Problem 3 and uses results from the previously derived models. In the very last model the deterministric nature of which side fires first is removed. All told, the models serve to highlight the effects of kill probability, vulnerability, guidance errors, kill radius, mobility, and rate of fire on the probability of survival.

Date: 1962
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