Bombing Problems---A Statistical Approach II

Andre C. Laurent
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Andre C. Laurent: Department of Mathematics, Wayne State University, Detroit

Operations Research, 1962, vol. 10, issue 3, 380-387

Abstract: A continuation of “Bombing Problems, A Statistical Approach,” Opns Res , 5, 75--89 (1957), this paper studies the probability of a hit within a circle centered at a moving target (kill probability) from the viewpoint of statistical inference. The best estimate of such a probability based on results obtained in past experiments, is given when the precision of the bombing apparel is unknown and bombing is performed under already observed experimental conditions. A “predictive” probability is derived in case bombing is performed under new experimental conditions. “Dangerous” regions around the target are discussed. A method is proposed to obtain the best estimate of a hit within a fixed area when the apparent target differs from the unknown true target. Generalizations to three dimensions are outlined.

Date: 1962
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