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A Lanchester Model of Guerrilla Warfare

S. J. Deitchman
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S. J. Deitchman: Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, D. C.

Operations Research, 1962, vol. 10, issue 6, 818-827

Abstract: A variation of the Lanchester equations is applied to exploration of the force ratios required to win in guerrilla-counterguerrilla warfare. It is shown that an attacking guerrilla force can, by using tactics that compensate for its weaknesses, defeat a force of defending regulars that has over-all superiority in numbers and weapons. The defenders can win by appropriate selection of weapons, countertactics, and group sizes for individual engagements. In general, however, the high over-all ratios of defending regulars to attacking guerillas that have characterized recent warfare of this kind in which the defense has been successful are extremely difficult to reduce.

Date: 1962
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