The Estimation of the Mean and Variance of a “PERT” Activity Time

William A. Donaldson
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William A. Donaldson: Department of Industrial Administration, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, C. 1, Scotland

Operations Research, 1965, vol. 13, issue 3, 382-385

Abstract: An alternative method of estimating the variance of a PERT activity time is proposed given that one of the initial estimates is the mean. The beta-distribution of the activity time is assumed to be tangential to the x -axis at each end. Restrictions in the current method are relaxed, and the inconsistency of the implicit assumption of a fixed coefficient of skew removed. The skew of the distribution is determined by the three estimates of the activity time. No difficult computations are involved.

Date: 1965
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