Letter to the Editor—Kill Probability When the Lethal Effect is Variable

Frank McNolty
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Frank McNolty: Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Sunnyvale, California

Operations Research, 1965, vol. 13, issue 3, 478-482

Abstract: Traditionally the probability of killing a point target is analyzed by means of employing a lethal circle (in two dimensions) or a lethal sphere (in three dimensions). The concept of a lethal circle or sphere is based on the assumption of a “kill-no kill” situation in which a target anywhere within the circle (sphere) is killed and a target anywhere outside of the lethal region is not killed. Another aspect of the “kill-no kill” approach is that it combines all lethal effects (heat, shock, x-rays, etc.) in one parameter—the radius R of the lethal circle (sphere). In many problems of weapon systems effectiveness this approach is extremely useful, but in other areas the attendant assumptions are unrealistic and the purpose of this paper is to present a useful alternative methodology. All of the formulas derived are amenable to desk-calculator computation.

Date: 1965
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