Letter to the Editor—Kill Probability for Multiple Shots

Frank McNolty
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Frank McNolty: Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Sunnyvale, California

Operations Research, 1967, vol. 15, issue 1, 165-169

Abstract: A point target is randomly located according to an offset circular normal distribution and remains in its unknown position throughout N independent tosses of a lethal circle. The paper presents integral expressions for the probability of: (1) killing the target at least once in N tosses of the lethal circle; (2) killing the target exactly n times in N tosses; (3) requiring less than or equal to m shots to kill the target exactly once; (4) killing the target at least once in N tosses when the bias (offset distance) is randomly distributed. The paper also presents formulas for the expected number of shots required to kill the target exactly once and the expected number of times the target is killed in N tosses. A simple expression is also given for the single-shot kill probability for an offset ellipsoidal case when the lethal radius of the weapon is variable rather than fixed.

Date: 1967
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