The Lanchester Attrition-Rate Coefficient

Seth Bonder
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Seth Bonder: The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

Operations Research, 1967, vol. 15, issue 2, 221-232

Abstract: Since Lanchester's original efforts to describe the dynamics of combat mathematically, many analysts have extended the theory to include additional factors. Current literature suggests that the use of these models for prediction of battle results has been hampered by the inability to predict the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients. In this paper a probability distribution for the attrition rate is developed for weapon systems that adjust fire based on results of the previous round fired. Parameters of the distribution are measurable capabilities of weapon systems and, accordingly, the attrition-rate coefficients can be predicted prior to inception of an engagement.

Date: 1967
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